Tennis betting tips
20:00 Jannik Sinner v Jack Draper
Jannik Sinner wins the match and both players win a set
1st set score after 2 games – Jack Draper 2-0
00:00 Taylor Fritz v Frances Tiafoe
Set 1 total games over 10.5
Total tie breaks over 1.5
Jannik Sinner v Jack Draper tips
Jannik Sinner wins the match and both players win a set
It has been a remarkable couple of weeks for Jack Draper, who, by beating Alex De Minaur on Wednesday, became the first British man since Andy Murray in 2012 to reach the US Open semi-finals.
The 22-year-old is yet to drop a set at Flushing Meadows – a feat that was impressive enough before his quarter-final triumph, let alone after seeing off the 10th seed in just over two hours.
It is about to get much tougher for the man from Sutton as he prepares to take on the world number one and odds-on favourite for the title. Jannik Sinner has recently faced significant physical and mental hurdles, but he has cruised through to the last four in New York.
The failed anti-doping tests continue to dominate the headlines, and while you wonder if it will all become too much for the Italian, he should be able to deal with Draper who is untested at this stage of a Grand Slam.
Sinner is still dealing with a hip problem so might not be at full throttle and that will offer Draper some joy, but not enough to notch three sets against the Australian Open champion.
1st set score after 2 games – Jack Draper 2-0
Sinner was broken in his first service game in each of his first two matches at this tournament, while Draper has tended to start fast as he burst into a 2-0 lead against both De Minaur and Botic Van De Zandschulp.
A blistering start is critical for Draper if he is to stand any chance, and it may be that Sinner feels the early pressure given that he is the overwhelming favourite yet has never played in a semi-final at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
I expect some early success for the Brit before Sinner’s quality takes hold, so this bet makes sense at a huge price.
Taylor Fritz v Frances Tiafoe tips
Set 1 total games over 10.5
Taylor Fritz leads the head-to-head 6-1, so you can see why the 12th seed is heavily favoured. Still, Frances Tiafoe has lit up the US Open in the last two years, particularly in 2022, when he took out Rafael Nadal and was a set away from defeating Carlos Alcaraz to reach the final.
It had been a poor 2024 for Tiafoe, but another classic with Alcaraz at Wimbledon marked the beginning of an upturn in form, leading to an excellent run to the Cincinnati Open final.
Of the two, I’d rather back Tiafoe at the prices, but I’m much more comfortable backing a high number of games. The pair have met seven times on this surface and of the most recent five (the other two were back in 2016), the first set has lasted 12 games or more on three occasions.
Both men are serving too well to lose the first set by more than one break, so a close opener could be on the cards.
Total tie breaks over 1.5
Fritz and Tiafoe have been among the best servers at the US Open, each managing to hold more than 90 per cent of the time. The same can’t be said for their return game where they are at 25 and 26 per cent respectively. For context, Sinner and Draper are at 50 and 47 per cent.
Those figures often result in tie-breaks, and that is indeed what happened in their last meeting but one, when Fritz won 7-6 7-6 in Tokyo.
Fritz’s victory over Zverev on Tuesday included two tie-breaks, and we might see the same here, especially against an opponent whose last three matches have each featured a tie-break.
US Open betting tips
Jannik Sinner v Jack Draper
Jannik Sinner wins the match and both players win a set
1st set score after 2 games – Jack Draper 2-0
Taylor Fritz v Frances Tiafoe
Set 1 total games over 10.5
Total tie breaks over 1.5
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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