Tennis betting tips
Emma Navarro v Aryna Sabalenka
1st set score after 2 games – Sabalenka 2-0
Emma Navarro to win at least one set
Jessica Pegula v Karolina Muchova
Total sets over 2.5
Karolina Muchova to win
Emma Navarro v Aryna Sabalenka
1st set score after 2 games – Sabalenka 2-0
Emma Navarro is enjoying her best-ever run at a major and having taken out defending champion Coco Gauff and in-form Paula Badosa, the American is one victory away from reaching the final in her home Grand Slam.
She couldn’t have asked for a more difficult opponent in the shape of Aryna Sabalenka, who powered her way through the first five rounds with minimal fuss and took just 74 minutes to dispatch Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng in the last eight.
This is the biggest match of Navarro’s life and it would be understandable if there were some early nerves. The 23-year-old has been broken in her first service game in six of her 13 matches during this hardcourt season, a recurring issue that has troubled her for years.
Sabalenka is one of the most prolific players on the tour at securing the first break of serve, meaning the price for a 2-0 lead in the first set looks big.
Emma Navarro to win at least one set
Sabalenka’s status as the clear favourite here is justified but for a woman with such a poor semi-final record at Grand Slams (three wins, five defeats), I’m not sure she should be such heavy odds-on to triumph in straight sets.
The Belarusian has twice been beaten in the last four in New York and while she did get over the hump by making the final last year, she required a third-set tiebreaker against Madison Keys to get there.
Navarro’s win over Sabalenka at Indian Wells in March was their only meeting on this surface to date. While the court speed is different at Flushing Meadows, the opportunities she was able to generate on the Australian Open champion’s serve offer plenty of encouragement for her chances on Thursday night.
Jessica Pegula v Karolina Muchova
Total sets over 2.5
Karolina Muchova’s progression to her second consecutive US Open semi-final was never in doubt on Wednesday as she swept Beatriz Haddad Maia aside, while Jessica Pegula had a much easier contest against world number one Iga Swiatek than she would have expected.
Neither player has dropped a set in the tournament and they have each taken out former US Open champions along the way. It was a close affair when the pair met in Cincinnati last month, and this has all the makings of a three-setter.
Pegula came into the event with the more eye-catching results under her belt but Muchova’s variety will undoubtedly cause problems for the sixth seed.
Karolina Muchova to win
Home advantage and a recent victory over her lower-ranked opponent means the oddsmakers favour Pegula, but Muchova has the statistical edge during this competition so I’m happy to take a chance on her as the underdog.
The Czech player has won more points behind both her first and second serve than Pegula, and she has hit more winners than unforced errors in four of her five outings, while the American has only managed that once.
Pegula deserves immense credit for upsetting Swiatek but it was a largely out-of-sorts display from the Pole – not something I expect from Muchova.
US Open betting tips
Emma Navarro v Aryna Sabalenka
1st set score after 2 games – Sabalenka 2-0
Emma Navarro to win at least one set
Jessica Pegula v Karolina Muchova
Total sets over 2.5
Karolina Muchova to win
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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