Wimbledon betting tips
2pm: Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz % points won from first serve: Under 74.5
Most aces handicap: Carlos Alcaraz -2.5
Set 1 Aces – Zero
A rematch of last year’s Wimbledon final is the lineup most would have hoped for – particularly once Jannik Sinner was eliminated – and Carlos Alcaraz is the favourite to become the youngest man to defend the title at SW19 since Boris Becker in 1986.
Novak Djokovic is chasing history of his own, aiming for a quarter-century of Grand Slam triumphs and a record-equalling eighth at the All England Club.
I can not suggest who will come out on top with any real conviction. Djokovic is rarely the underdog in any match but it’s fair enough in this instance. The Serb has yet to enter the winner’s circle in 2024, and concerns remain over his condition just over a month removed from knee surgery.
Alcaraz has not been at his best at this year’s Championships, but the Spaniard has figured things out when it has mattered, avoiding any true jeopardy.
Rather than forcing a match odds, total games, or game handicap bet, I’m looking at the alternative markets for a way into this match.
Carlos Alcaraz % points won from first serve: Under 74.5
Alcaraz has won 72.2 per cent of points behind his first serve at Wimbledon 2024, a decrease of over four percentage points from last year’s tournament.
In his first two matches at SW19 this summer, he won 84 per cent of first-serve points against Mark Lajal and 82 per cent versus Aleksandar Vukic.
A difficult third-round match with Frances Tiafoe saw that figure drop to 71 per cent, while Alcaraz’s last three encounters – victories over Ugo Humbert, Tommy Paul, and Daniil Medvedev – have each resulted in a first-serve points win rate of 66 per cent.
As the competition has become stiffer, the number has gone down significantly so it feels like a tall order for Alcaraz to jump back up to a points won from first serve percentage of over 74.5 on Sunday.
In the 2023 final, Alcaraz won 70 per cent of points behind his first serve against Djokovic. Under 74.5 per cent also landed in their two subsequent meetings on hard courts.
Most aces handicap: Carlos Alcaraz -2.5
Alcaraz has faced some big servers at Wimbledon this year but while he may not be winning as many points behind the first serve as he might like, he has hit more aces than his opponent in every match besides the first round.
The 21-year-old smacked 16 past Tiafoe compared to the American’s nine in round three. Even more impressive was the way Alcaraz restricted Paul – who was averaging 9.75 aces per match until their quarter-final – to only two aces in four sets.
He even out-aced Medvedev in the semis and the handicap line of 2.5 for the clash with Djokovic is very appealing, especially after looking at statistics from their recent battles.
Finding a way to effectively return the Serb’s serve was key for Alcaraz 12 months ago as he allowed him to register just two aces in the five-set thriller. The ace scoreline in the pair’s last three competitive matches have been 9-2, 11-2, and 10-2, all in the Spaniard’s favour.
Regardless of which way this match goes, Alcaraz can keep the ball in play on his return games and cover this spread.
Set 1 Aces – Zero
From round four onwards, Alcaraz has ramped up the ace hitting later in matches once he has worn his opponents down. He didn’t record an ace in the first set against Humbert or Paul and only hit one in the opener against Medvedev which went to a tie-break.
Djokovic has hit exactly two aces in the first set of his last three outings, but given how few he manages when he plays Alcaraz, it would be a surprise if he kept that run going.
Therefore, it’s worth a small play on exactly zero aces in the first set. Djokovic hit the only one in the opening set of last year’s final, so we’re only asking for one fewer here to land this bet at a big price.
Wimbledon betting tips
2pm: Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz % points won from first serve: Under 74.5
Most aces handicap: Carlos Alcaraz -2.5
Set 1 Aces – Zero
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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