Wimbledon betting tips today
Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz
Over 39.5 games
Set 1 total games over 10.5
Lorenzo Musetti v Novak Djokovic
Djokovic wins the match and both players win a set
Djokovic to win 3-2
Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz
Over 39.5 games
It hasn’t been vintage Carlos Alcaraz at SW19 this month. He looked second-best in spells against Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul but, at the same time, it has not once truly felt like the defending champion could be heading home.
Daniil Medvedev is the final hurdle between Alcaraz and a potential rematch of last year’s final with Novak Djokovic, and the Russian is playing well enough to provide a scare.
The 28-year-old has held his serve more than 90 per cent of the time at this year’s Championships, and he didn’t even have to face a break point in the first two sets versus Jannik Sinner before the Italian got injured in the third.
Alcaraz got the job done in straight sets when this pair met at the same stage last year, but Medvedev has since beaten the Spaniard at a Grand Slam (last year’s US Open) and arrives with greater confidence on grass this time.
Set 1 total games over 10.5
Four of Alcaraz’s five opening sets in this tournament have seen over 10.5 games. Two of Medvedev’s four have gone to a tie-break, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the same happen here.
Two of the three encounters between these players since Alcaraz’s triumph at Wimbledon last year have resulted in a first-set tie-break. We only need 12 games for this bet to land and while Alcaraz may well pull away as the match goes on, it’s likely to be tight early doors.
Interestingly, Alcaraz has been broken at both 5-5 and 5-6 in opening sets over the last week, which is why I’ve not gone for over 12.5 games at just a slightly bigger price.
Lorenzo Musetti v Novak Djokovic
Djokovic wins the match and both players win a set
Jasmine Paolini has already guaranteed Italy one finalist at the All England Club. Looking to follow in his compatriot’s footsteps is Lorenzo Musetti, who came through a thriller with Taylor Fritz but couldn’t have asked for a tougher semi-final opponent.
Not only is Musetti up against Novak Djokovic, but he faces a well-rested Djokovic whose week has involved a bizarrely routine victory over Holger Rune followed by a walkover.
Djokovic should come through this test but I’m not ready to simply dismiss the 25th seed. The Serb has not been at his best this year, and victory is not to be taken for granted.
Musetti’s return game on grass is much-improved – so much so that I expect him to create enough opportunities on the Djokovic serve to ultimately take a set.
Djokovic to win 3-2
Musetti taking one set looks like good value and I’m prepared to go one step further and suggest he could take Djokovic the distance.
He did so at Roland Garros which admittedly is a more suitable surface for the Italian but I feel like the ease with which Djokovic dispatched Rune in the last 16 has caused oddsmakers to forget how poorly, by his outrageously high standards, the 37-year-old is playing this year.
Rune was awful that night but in prior rounds both Alexei Popyrin and Jacob Fearnley – neither of whom are as skilled as Musetti – were able to take sets off Djokovic.
We would need the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s first serve percentage to take a nosedive for this to have a real chance, but at the odds quoted it’s worth a small play.
Wimbledon betting tips today
Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz
Over 39.5 games
Set 1 total games over 10.5
Lorenzo Musetti v Novak Djokovic
Djokovic wins the match and both players win a set
Djokovic to win 3-2
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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