Wimbledon betting tips
2pm: Barbora Krejcikova v Jasmine Paolini
Jasmine Paolini to win
Over 2.5 sets
Each of the first two sets to end in a tie-break
Jasmine Paolini to win
Jasmine Paolini won a Wimbledon classic against Donna Vekic on Thursday afternoon. The fact that Barbora Krejcikova saw off Elena Rybakina to become Paolini’s opponent was a massive surprise, especially after the first set.
Rybakina dominated the Czech for 42 minutes but seemed to tighten up as the winning line got closer. Having hit 19 winners in set one, the 2022 champion only registered another 19 in the following two sets combined. The loss of her timing allowed Krejcikova back into the contest.
Taking full advantage of the Kazakh’s drop in standards, Krejcikova deserves credit for sticking to her task and digging deep to outlast the fourth seed.
It has thrown up a rather unpredictable final, but I’m surprised to see Paolini installed as the underdog. Her speed and shot-making variety could be the difference in this match-up and while Krejcikova is the one with a Grand Slam singles title to her name, I’m backing the spirited Italian to get off the mark in her second major final in as many months.
Over 2.5 sets
While Paolini is my preference in the match odds market, there is a strong chance of three sets and this is a more confident play.
Yes, Krejcikova is a two-time champion in doubles at SW19. And yes, she won the French Open singles three years ago but never in her wildest dreams would she have expected to be a victory away from a ninth Grand Slam title across both formats.
Even Paolini, one of the best players on tour this year, must be pinching herself that she has got this far on a surface that has never been her friend.
Therefore it would be understandable if whoever takes the first set becomes slightly edgy in the second. By the same token, they each fell behind in the semis and came out on top so they will back themselves to do so again should they find themselves a set down.
Both players possess excellent variation and will be able to make adjustments to their game in order to find a route back into it.
Each of the first two sets to end in a tie-break
Paddy Power traders always put together some interesting #WhatOddsPaddy markets for high-profile matches, and there is one long shot in particular that caught my eye for the women’s singles final.
Krejcikova’s first two matches at the All England Club this year were projected to be tight affairs and they turned out to be just that as the first two sets in each of them ended in tie-breaks.
Paolini has also been involved in tie-breaks in four of her six matches. She is the stronger returner of the two finalists, but Krejcikova has the edge in service points won. It’s possible that they cancel each other out, so it’s worth getting tie-breaks on side at a huge price.
Wimbledon betting tips
2pm: Barbora Krejcikova v Jasmine Paolini
Jasmine Paolini to win
Over 2.5 sets
Each of the first two sets to end in a tie-break
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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