Tennis Tips: Your 3 best bets for Nadal v Medvedev Australian Open Final

Top tips for Sunday morning's men's final in Melbourne from Paddy's tennis trader Robbie Daly.


* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

After a wonderful two-week feast of tennis we are down to our final match and what a contest it promises to be. Rafael Nadal is looking to take advantage of the absent Novak Djokovic to win his 21st Grand Slam while Daniil Medvedev looks to become the first player outside of the three modern greats to win back to back slams since Andre Agassi did it at this same competition way back in January 2000.


This shows just how dominant ‘The Big 3’ have been over the last 20 years but nothing lasts forever and Medvedev looks to have what it takes to put his own stamp on tennis history. Medvedev is the clear favourite going into Sunday’s final having defeated Djokovic in straight sets to clinch his first slam at the US Open in September and has shown no signs of slowing down in his march to the final.

The Russian has been growing in confidence throughout the tournament and the hard fought 3-2 quarter final win against Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime did much to cement that belief. He recovered well to defeat Stefanos Tsitsipas in 4 sets in his semi final, although at one point he showed signs of feeling the pressure, completely losing his cool and berating the umpire for allowing his opponents father to coach from the stands.


Rafa, on the other hand, comes into the match feeling no pressure. The current world number 5 is just happy to be back playing again at such a high level after numerous injury problems. The Spaniard’s all-action style has clearly taken its toll and prior to January he had not featured at a major event since August.

There were fears that his playing career may be over but he made a winning return at the Melbourne Summer Set earlier this month gaining his 89th title and seems to be going from strength to strength with each passing round. In the quarter finals Rafa overcame Denis Shapovalov in a classic show of the battling determination he has become famous for, complete with accusations of time wasting coming from the opposition camp.

The semi final proved a little more straight forward with a 3-1 victory over world number 7 Matteo Berrentini, rolling back the years to display some of his trademark whipped forehand bullets into the corner to cruise to victory.

Rafa Nadal to Win

Medvedev has form and fitness on his side, he has a great record on hard courts over the last four years and is beginning to show consistency in his game but Rafa is quietly building momentum and his serve is looking sharper than ever. The pair have played four times with Nadal leading 3-1 in the head to head and it will be the second major final the pair have contested after the US Open final in 2019 in which Rafa triumphed in a five set thriller.

The Legendary Spaniard will have the Melbourne crowd on his side if only for the fact the he can overtake pantomime villain Djokovic on the all time Grand Slam list. I think Nadal can Win and draw on all his experience to frustrate his younger opponent who showed that he can be rattled in the previous round and clinch a fairytale return which will delight his fans.

First Game of the Match to go to Deuce

With the high stakes of an occasion like this it can take a few games for each player to get a feel for their opponent and find rhythm in their service game so I’m going for an early battle to get on the scoreboard. This First Game of the Match to go to Duce punt is a #WhatoddsPaddy bet and if you place a #WhatoddsPaddy punt on this match you get another free.

Set 2 Total Games Over 12.5

As the match goes on I believe Nadal will look to turn this into a war of attrition and use every trick in the book to unsettle his opponent and bring this to a second set tie break. Medvedev has had at least one tie break in five out of his six matches at the Aus Open so far this year. Couple that up with the fact that both he and Nadal have both won their last two matches while conceding a set to their opponent and it gives you every chance that this match will have games in abundance.

I think Set 2 Total Games Over 12.5 has a great chance here.

Men’s Australian Open Final Tips

Rafa Nadal to win
First Game of the Match to go to Deuce
Set 2 Total Games Over 12.5

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change


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