The World Tour Finals return to the O2 Arena in London for the ninth consecutive year, where the top eight players of the year player in two round robin groups before a semi-final & finals.
This year’s edition has been deprived of a lot of big names with both of last year’s finalists missing out due to injury.
However, we do have the current World numbers one and two in Nadal and Federer, and they are duly favourites in the outright at prices of 3/1 and 8/13 respectively.
Thiem v Dimitrov: Dimitrov to win 2-0 – 5/4
The man once titled “Baby Fed” is making his long awaited debut at a WTF and might finally be able to reach the heights many thought he would. Thiem is making his second appearance in London, largely thanks to another excellent clay season.
Since the clay stuff finished though, he’s been on terrible form, regularly losing in the first round to lower-ranked opposition. The conditions in London should suit Dimitrov’s game and I expect him to beat Thiem quite comfortably. Dimitrov 2-0 @ 5/4 looks the bet.
Nadal v Goffin: Goffin Games Handicap (+4.5) – 8/11
Nadal’s match has been scheduled last of the first round matches as the ATP try to give him as much time to recover from the knee injury that made him pull out of Paris. Rafa has already secured the year-end no.1 ranking so I don’t see him forcing it if the knee acts up again. For this reason I think it’s worth siding with Goffin.
He’s finished the season strongly, winning in Shenzhen & Tokyo and has one match as an alternative under his belt from last year so shouldn’t be overawed by the occasion.
R Federer v J Sock: Total Match Games – Under (20.5) – 8/11
Both of these players enter London in excellent form, with Federer having won his last 12 matches and Sock having won his last 5 (Fresh off his maiden ATP 1000 victory at Paris). This has the potential to be a good contest but I expect Federer to get through in straight sets.
The pair have met on three previous occasions with Federer yet to drop a set to Sock and all the matches have been completed in 20 or fewer games.
Total Match Games Under (20.5) at 8/11 with us seems to have the most value here.
A Zverev v M Cilic: First Set Correct Score Any Player, Either Player 7-6 – 11/4
Very tough to pick a winner in this match, with these two having met on four previous occasions and every single one of these have been extremely close contests. The bet that appeals to me most is the 1st set tiebreaker, either player 7-6 at 11/4.
Half of their matchups have gone to a first set tiebreaker with another being 7-5. Both men are good servers and difficult opponents to overturn so there seems great value in this selection.
£/€1 returns approximately £/€24.17.
- Dimitrov to win 2-0 versus Thiem – 5/4
- Goffin Games Handicap (+4.5) – 8/11
- Federer v Sock Total Match Games Under (20.5) – 8/11
- Zverev v Cilic: First Set Correct Score Any Player, Either Player 7-6 – 11/4
Odds correct at time of posting.