After two very difficult early round matches, Federer took care of business with Lopez quite easily. However, a night match certainly didn’t suit Lopez. He was very poor on serve and Federer has so much more power in rallies that it just wasn’t meant to be for the Spaniard. Kohlschreiber is a different type of player though and while he also had very little success against the GOAT in the past (0 out of 11 in head to head), he did manage to steal two sets in the last three matches. He’s also boasting some impressive stats here at Flushing Meadows so far. The German hasn’t dropped a set, is now on an eight match winning streak, and has 11 wins out of the last 12 last matches – with one retirement. This is finally a chance for Kohlschreiber to do a bit more and while we think Rodger will win, we fancy the over 33.5 games punt here.
Safarova has had a much easier draw here and that slightly disguises the fact that Vandeweghe has been playing better of late. Safarova hasn’t been bad but Vandeweghe has been showing signs of some new-found mental strength under the tutelage of new coach Pat Cash. The quirky American managed to find a way to hold her serve in several difficult situations against Radwanska and that’s surely a consequence of good coaching. Both girls have strong ground shots but with the surface playing slower this year, Vandeweghe will have more time to adjust on defence and get better positioning for her attacks.
With both women in superb form, having lost only one match a piece since Wimbledon, this one comes down to the details. And they seem to be slightly in the American’s favour we think. Both have dropped only a single set in the first three rounds so there’s really very little to split them here. However, this battle will come down to mental strength and Svitolina has shown more shortcomings in that department. Keys will also have an overwhelming home crowd support behind her. It’s also worth mentioning Svitolina has also played a lot more tennis this year and Keys, who’s catching fire after her return from injury might just have a bit more freshness about her.