Eurovision tips: Your best bet for Tuesday’s first semi final & an outright shout

Our tipster Stephen Cass dusts off the sequins ahead of Eurovision week.

Eurovision 2024

Eurovision tips

Ukraine to Win Eurovision (each way)
Cyprus not to qualify

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Ireland’s Bambie Thug takes to the stage on Tuesday night, riding a wave of positivity. Doomsday Blue is the most talked about rehearsal in recent days. Bambie performs in their gothic witch regalia, and has put on a master-class with staging that showcases storytelling and vocals.

Your local parish priest may not like it, but vast swathes of European youths will vote for Bambie in droves. Ireland are certain qualifiers, and should the momentum continue to build, who knows? Dublin 2025 is currently a 19-1 shot and we all see 20-1 winners of horse races every day of the week. The dream is alive.

The latest Eurovision odds are on PaddyPower.com now

If you want to back Ireland then maybe backing a semi-final win at 25-1 is the way to go. Semi-finals are televote only and Ireland is a televote friendly package. However being drawn 4 of 15 puts me off recommending that.

The 15-8 available for a top 10 finish outright is appealing. I feel Ireland could even shorten to single figures outright come Saturday night and they will be odds on for a top 10 finish should that be the case.

However, unless the song becomes talked about as a serious contender I don’t see juries awarding enough points for Ireland to seriously threaten the left half of the board. We can but live in hope. If you want a patriotic top 10 punt I won’t put you off, but I’m not backing it myself just yet.

Bambie

Ukraine To Win Eurovision (each way)

So who might win tonight’s semi-final? It looks a shootout between Croatia and Ukraine, with Croatia currently outright favourites for victory. Baby Lasagne (Croatia) is definitely a televote act but as far as I’m concerned Ukraine is a much better overall package.

It has looked superb in rehearsals with a wonderful stage act complemented by pitch perfect vocals. In the grand final Ukraine are virtually guaranteed 200+ televote points from their vast diaspora and superb song quality.

The song will also do very well with juries. In my antepost column on these pages I recommended backing Ukraine each way for overall success and I still think that’s a fantastic wager.

Cyprus not to qualify

One bet I am happy to make is on Cyprus not to qualify. Cyprus are opening the semi-final and nine of the last 20 semi-final show openers have failed to qualify.

In the past 10 contests Cyprus have received the most points from Greece, Armenia, Albania, Malta, Spain, San Marino and Georgia. Unfortunately for the Cypriots, not one of these countries is voting in semi-final one.

The song is passable up-tempo teeny bop stuff, but it will struggle to stand out in an extremely strong first half of the semi-final.

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The latest Eurovision odds are on PaddyPower.com now

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What do you think?