Second week of March. Twenty-plus betting heats. The who’s-who of the industry all coming together to celebrate the best of the best.
Some quirky clobber, questionable hairstyles, soundbites trying to grab headlines, drama and probably too much alcohol.
Yes, indeed – the Academy Awards! Wait, you thought of Cheltenham didn’t you?
The Oscars are, and always have been, my favourite specials to bet on. Primarily because I’ve seen most of the films, but also because it’s nice to be sleep deprived waiting on a nice touch and not listening to American commentators at Del Mar.
Instead, you get Ricky Gervais making p*ss poor jokes to an audience who don’t get his references, dragging them out for far too long, only to then announce a tens-on winner despite you sitting on a 14/1 shot simply because you fancy yourself as a new generation Wes Anderson.
Who said punting couldn’t be a cultural experience? Here’s your brief.
Best Picture
There are a few shorties I’d take on here but Oppenheimer will not be one. It’s clearly the best film made this year, and given Nolan’s previous two nominations in this space, it aged quite well compared to the respective winners in those years, this feels like his DiCaprio/Revenant moment.
I loved Oppenheimer, don’t get me wrong. However, Anatomy of a Fall, Poor Things and Zone of Interest would have taken this home in any number of the last two decades’ worth of Best Picture runs.
There’s serious depth to this.
Best Actor
For those of you new to award season, The Screen Actors Guild Awards are usually a good indication of where the golden statue ends up in most categories. But since that trend has been highlighted more frequently in recent years, it’s almost become a focus point for the Academy to go against the awards given out in at least one of the major categories. This will be the one, I think.
Cillian Murphy is the clear favourite for this, and while his performances are good in essence, it’s generally the glazed-over look in his eyes that has people raving. That’s a tough sell in future montages. Bradley Cooper is a poster boy, but his performance in Maestro was only nominated for that reason to begin with, while Jeffrey Wright and Colman Domingo are severely lacking substance.
Instead, I tend to side with Paul Giamatti who plays an emotionally-fragile but deeply empathetic teacher in The Holdovers, which is easily the most re-watchable of these.
Best Actress
Taking on another favourite here, Lily Gladstone is indeed the only positive that came out of the same rubbish that Scorcese has been making for years in Killers of the Flower Moon, but you very rarely see an award given to a performance in a film that fell way below critical expectation.
One thing that could have been a shrewd bet was if Margot Robbie was nominated, but she missed the cut. Sandra Huller should have been nominated twice for this award for both Anatomy of a Fall and Zone of Interest, putting together the best single-cycle double I’ve ever seen.
But neither are strong enough in isolation to claim the gong. Instead, preference goes for Oscar darling Emma Stone who put in a career-best alongside Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe in Poor Things.
Best Director
The Best Picture/Best Director double is often split up for controversy or convention. This is not happening this year. Christopher Nolan.
The Banker
In an attempt to avoid getting too engaged with Disney’s cinematic Marvel universe, the worst-price favourite in this year’s awards is Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse, meaning you should be siding with the best critical success of the year in The Boy and the Heron in the Best Animated Feature running.
The Value
I’ll be stunned if Billie Eilish wins an Oscar for Best Original Song twice in three years, so I’d probably side with a controversial selection in I’m Just Ken which will surely spawn some feminist rhetoric, perhaps intentionally to help market the film’s legacy long-term.
The Outsider
Best Costume Design isn’t normally where I’d go for a punt, but perhaps the most overpriced selection this year falls in this category with Napoleon. Based on the exploits of the previously mentioned, and despite it being a Netflix production which irks the Academy, the efforts that went into designing grandeur in eighteenth-century France combined with wartime attire of the Napoleonic battles in Russia is liable to get a nod.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
READ MORE
- When are the Oscars 2024? Date, start time and nominations in full
- Oscars 2024: How many Academy Awards will Oppenheimer win?
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