It’s an early start for Namibia and New Zealand in the Tokyo Stadium on Sunday October 6. The ‘David and Goliath’ tie takes place at 5.45am Irish/UK time and few will be setting their alarms for this one. In all reality, this mismatch might very well be enjoyed on fast forward. There are sure to be tries and there is sure to be some poor defending, but more importantly, there should be some bets floating around that we can make some money on.
Only three starters remain from New Zealand’s 63-0 victory over Canada: Shannon Frizell, Jordie Barrett and Jack Goodhue the ones who need to double up. New Zealand and Namibia will meet for the second time with New Zealand winning 58-14 at RWC 2015. New Zealand scored nine tries in that match to Namibia’s one. The most points Namibia have ever conceded in a RWC match was when they lost to 142-0 to Australia in 2003, but we cannot see New Zealand getting anywhere near the 100 marker this time around. It just doesn’t seem to be that type of Rugby World Cup.
However, I do feel that the 62-0 win over Canada could be bettered. For one, the conditions should be better conducive to handling for the All-Blacks, while Canada are ‘marginally’ better than Namibia. So, for this half of the double, we are going with New Zealand to win by 71-80 points at 11/4.
Changes everywhere for the All Blacks next #RWC2019 match!
— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) October 4, 2019
The plan for Sunday morning is now set up. Roll out of bed, check the Paddy Power Twitter feed and see that New Zealand have managed to run away with the first game, setting us up for round two of this ‘recovery’ double.
The second game is one that could either be one way traffic or, an instant classic. It could very well be one we will watch on YouTube for generations to come. France and Tonga meet at 8.45am and both sides like to play ball.
France make 11 changes from the team that played the United States, retaining only Camille Chat, Paul Gabrillagues, Sofiane Gitoune and Alivereti Raka for the team to play Tonga. Maxime Medard is the only France survivor from the 19-14 defeat by Tonga at Rugby World Cup 2011. That game, eight years ago, is something that has piqued our interest.
Even though that defeat against Tonga at RWC 2011 is still France’s only loss against Tier 2 opposition in a World Cup match, in 22 encounters, the head to head between these two sides from 5 meetings is 3-2 to Les Bleus.
Tonga have made two changes to the XV that started and lost by 14 against Argentina last weekend. Tight-head prop Ma’afu Fia replaces Ben Tameifuna, and Cooper Vuna comes in for Viliami Lolohea on the right wing. With the handicap in this game set at -25 in favour of France, we think that Tonga could manage that. It is not really based on tactical analysis, per se. It is more based on the fact that we don’t trust the French.
Pick: Tonga +25 – 10/11
A £/1 double on these two selections returns £/€7.16 including stake on paddypower.com. Odds correct at time of posting, subject to change.