A hole in one, a nine darter or a 147. What’s the hardest to achieve?
It’s a question that will finally be answered once and for as Paddy turns Mythbuster in his Perfect Challenge coming straight to you live and direct around the world on Wednesday via Paddy’s socials and YouTube channel.
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The big man’s enlisted six superstars in their field to go head to head and finally settle this age-old debate.
Stepping up to the oche are the great Michael van Gerwen and Luke Humphries. Legends of the Crucible Shaun Murphy and Mark Williams will be hunting a 147 while golfing gods Matt Wallace and Ross Fisher are going straight for the pin.
All the details are right here but we’ve enlisted some of Paddy’s top traders to rune the rule over each challenge and offer up some insight into the pure difficulty of each.
We’ve got Brian McGuinness, who just so happens to be a scratch golfer don’t you know, and future Paddy Power World Darts champion Nicola O’Sullivan to guide us through the numbers.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Snooker
There have been 208 147 breaks in professional snooker history. While this feat used to be a rare occurrence back in the 80’s and 90’s, it’s now become more commonplace with there already being 14 maximum breaks in 2024 (more than any year in history).
The key to thinking the 147 will be achieved first is that in a conventional frame of snooker, winning the frame is the ultimate goal and not making a 147, so the stats are somewhat misleading here given the 147 is the only goal in this challenge.
You also have Shaun Murphy on your side, who made the first and only 147 in the snooker shootout last year with the significant pressure of a shot clock involved. Indeed, Murphy and Williams have made a combined 11 career maximum breaks between them.
Golf
On average, professional golfers will make a hole in one on a par 3 approximately 1 in 2,500 shots making this the least likely of the 3 in our opinion.
On the plus side here though, is that this hole is significantly shorter than you normal professional Par 3 at 141 yards, meaning even Peter Crouch and Tony Bellew won’t be without a chance of an ace here.
Although unlikely, this will also be the potential quickest of the 3 given both darts and snooker require multiple shots to click while only 1 shot can be lucky here.
Darts
The standard of the average PDC tour player has dramatically improved over the last 10 years, as evidenced by the significant rise in perfect legs. In the 2014 season, there were just 20 nine-dart finishes, compared to 55 in 2024 so far.
That said, the likelihood of the average tour player throwing a nine-dart leg remains extremely low, with odds of approximately 5,000/1 per attempt. However, considering the exceptional abilities of players like Michael van Gerwen and Luke Humphries, we estimate the probability of either of them hitting a perfect leg in one attempt to be closer to 2,500/1.
In this challenge, the nine-dart finish is more likely than you might expect, as these players will likely have the most opportunities to attempt it.
What are the odds (true price) for all 3 to happen we hear you ask? We reckon around 200/1. Conversely we think there’s a good chance that none happen as well.
Trader’s Verdicts
Brian: “As a decent golfer, I’d fancy my chances in this challenge to make the Hole in One. The real difficulty for golfers normally is that we only play four Par 3 holes per round (on average). We battle external elements, different distances, pin positions.
“In this challenge, the latter two factors are constant. That greatly increases the chances of making the shot. We’ve all seen Bryson DeChambeau and his challenge on social media, where he made the Hole in One on Day 16 with his 134th shot.
“Anyway, enough about Golf. Given one event is certain of happening, it’s logical to take the 9 Dart Finish over both the Hole in One and 147. But for fun, take the Golfer and share in the joy!”
Nicola: “As a newbie to playing both Golf and Darts this year, and with zero knowledge of Snooker, when thinking of this personally, the likelihood that I would get a Hole in One is the most probable.
“However I threw some arrows with Joe Cullen last week, so my Darts skills are significantly increasing and I’m proud to say I hit the board more than not. Watch out MvG.
“But, of course, when you look at professionals taking on this challenge the odds are significantly different.
“For the Hole in One Challenge, there are a lot more external factors to consider compared to scoring 147 or hitting a 9 Dart Finish. Weather conditions and pin position all need to be considered and can really impact how this challenge will go.
“Odds for a 9 Dart Finish to happen during the Paddy Power World Darts Championship are currently sitting at 4/9 Yes so, my gut would be between the Hole in One and a 9 Darter Happening during this challenge.”
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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