The Irish General Election takes place on Friday this week and the polls show the main parties are neck-and-neck going into the final days of the campaign.
Our own talismanic tallyman Andrew Cunneen has cast his eyes over the markets to give us three predictions for when the votes are counted – and beyond.
Irish General Election Bets
Most Seats: Fianna Fail
Next Government: Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Labour
Limerick City constituency: Conor Sheehan to Be Elected
Most Seats – Fianna Fail
Things change quickly. And time fades faster in the month (or three weeks in this case) in the run-up to an election than at any other point in a calendar year.
Fianna Fail have gone quietly about their business throughout this campaign; and as Fine Gael held the title of most-likely-to-win-most-seats just as the election was called, the typical battlefield of the so-called big two in FF and FG and the opposition had to be spearheaded by an Taoiseach.
However, key issues and some less-than-ideal canvassing moments which have been captured have seen Simon Harris – the forefront of the party at large – take a dip in public perception.
As the left block began to pile-in, the could-be coalition partner in Fianna Fail have been able to take a step back from the fray and they’re now the rightful favourites to claim most seats across the country.
And I don’t really see, four days out, how we get any other outcome.
Government after Next General Election – Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour
Due to the county’s clear turn towards more independent candidates, it seems the easiest road to 88 seats is through the big two, and their most willing left-leaning party.
Given the track record and an expected drop in public support of the Greens, Ivana Bacik could well be the key to the 34th Dail, as she hasn’t explicitly ruled out any coalitions – merely just red line issues, which, as we know, tend to become more agreeable when you’re up against it to pave a path to government.
There’s a real chance that we’re casting ballots for a second time, too – but as that typically casts as a real negative for voters at this time of year – I expect that a general acceptance of that three-headed coalition will be present.
Limerick City constituency – Conor Sheehan to Be Elected
Limerick City is one of the more interesting four-seaters in the country – not just because there’s three candidates priced between 4/7 and 7/4 to win the final seat, but because we can also lean on the recent mayoral election for clues.
The third biggest city in Ireland became the political talking point of the country when the decided to adopt a Directly-Elected Mayor – a contest won by independent John Moran last year.
To our advantage, many of those who lined out to be mayor are also reopposing here to take a seat in the Dáil, albeit these elections fell to the votership of different constituency groupings, as the county vote also factored into electing the mayor.
There was a clear desire in Limerick to elect an independent candidate, and thus many who ran for the office will have taken a hit. But perhaps one who did benefit in the city, in part due to increased exposure as a younger candidate, was Conor Sheehan, whose name value has shot up on Shannonside after an impressive run of debate appearances over the last few weeks.
As the Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Sinn Fein seats look sure to hold in Limerick, he looks primed to grab some of the votes votes that outgoing TD Brian Leddin is projected to lose, as the viable left-leaning alternative. And despite the price, I’d probably make him favourite to grab the fourth and final seat over Frankie Daly.
Irish General Election Bets
Most Seats: Fianna Fail
Next Government: Fianna Fail/Fine Gael/Labour
Limerick City constituency: Conor Sheehan to Be Elected
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