It’s the race of the century – and the US Presidential Election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump looks set to go down to the wire!
Despite there being roughly 240 million voters in the United States of America, a small percentage of those will actually decide who takes the keys to the White House due to the complex voting system.
What is it? Well, the 50 states (and the District of Colombia) are assigned electoral college votes based on their population size. The candidate that wins the most votes in each state bags the electoral college votes on offer. For example, California – the most populous state in the USA – is worth 54 electoral college votes and teeny tiny Vermont is worth just three.
There are a total of 538 electoral college votes up for grabs and a candidate needs to secure 270 to be declared the winner.
Whereas some such as Democrat-supporting California are almost certain to vote a certain way, there are seven swing states worth a combined total of 93 electoral college votes that will most likely settle the outcome.
The latest US State Betting can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise, our guide to the key swing states is below.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
Arizona
Who won in 2020? Joe Biden by 10,000 votes
Electoral College Votes: 11
The Republicans have never won an election without carrying Arizona, which is in contrast to the Democrats, who have achieved that feat on six occasions.
The Grand Canyon State has backed the blues just twice in more than 50 years – Bill Clinton in 1996 and Joe Biden in 2020 – so it seems safe to think it will probably swing back to the reds.
Crucially, Arizona borders Mexico so immigration is a hot topic in the area.
Verdict: Republicans
Georgia
Who won in 2020? Joe Biden by 13,000 votes
Electoral College Votes: 16
The Democrats won Georgia by the skin of their teeth for the first time since 1992 at the last election – and Harris will most likely need to repeat the feat if she’s to become the first woman to occupy the White House.
The fact the Supreme Court in Georgia recently reinstated a six-week abortion ban could be enough to mobilise progressive voters and tip the scales in Harris’ favour.
Verdict: Democrats
Michigan
Who won in 2020? Joe Biden by 150,000 votes
Electoral College Votes: 15
The Democrats’ stance on Gaza is hurting their support in Michigan as the Great Lakes state boasts the USA’s largest proportion of Arab-Americans.
The polls have swung back in the Democrats’ favour since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, however, and she should get over the line to bag the 15 electoral college votes on offer.
Verdict: Democrats
Nevada
Who won in 2020? Joe Biden by 34,000 votes
Electoral College Votes: 6
Las Vegas’ home state has the highest unemployment rate in the USA, which should offer the Republicans hope of taking the six electoral college votes on offer.
Nevada has a recent history of trending towards the Democrats, however, and Harris has turned the local polls back in her favour since stepping up to the fight.
The state has voted the same way as New Mexico in all bar one election since 1912 – the Democrats boast a massive lead in the polls there – which provides a potential clue to the outcome.
Verdict: Democrats
North Carolina
Who won in 2020? Donald Trump by 74,000 votes
Electoral College Votes: 16
The Tar Heel State has voted for the Democrats on just one occasion since 1980 – and that was Barack Obama’s trouncing of John McCain in 2008.
Despite its Republican history, North Carolina could be in play as the polls are tightening and Trump has made high-profile visits in a bid to shore up support.
Verdict: Republicans
Pennsylvania
Who won in 2020? Joe Biden by 82,000 votes
Electoral College Votes: 19
Ah, Pennsylvania. A great state that has been the setting for two of the greatest sitcoms of all-time – It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia and The Office (US).
Do you want another fab fact that neatly ties this tenuous intro together? The fictional office in the latter sitcom was based in Scranton, the city where Joe Biden grew up.
The Keystone state was also the location for the first assassination attempt on Trump and it looks likely to be the big shot of the seven swing states as 19 electoral college votes are up for grabs.
The polls have Pennsylvania as too close to call – it could get messy if there’s barely any votes in it – and it will effectively come down to their ground game on the day.
Verdict: Democrats
Wisconsin
Who won in 2020? Joe Biden by 21,000 votes
Electoral College Votes: 10
Wisconsin has backed the winning candidate at the last four elections – flipping for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 – which shows you this is a key battleground.
Trump believes he will “win the whole thing” if he takes Wisconsin and a sign of the Republicans’ determination to win the area can be seen by the fact the party held its Convention in Milwaukee – the largest city in the Badger State.
It is firmly in tossup territory as the polls are too close to call – but the return of the Green Party to the ballot could give the Democrats a headache.
Verdict: Republicans
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- The Ultimate US Presidential Election Betting Guide
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