Political odds move all the time. Whether it’s because of a scandal or a new set of polling data, bookmakers and punters alike are quick to focus on the odds when a new story emerges.
These days the 24/7 news cycle means politics is never out of the headlines. As soon as a party wins a big election, so come the scandals and complications that could result in their downfall.
It happened to Boris Johnson and the Conservatives in 2019, Donald Trump and his administration in 2016, and might happen to Labour beyond 2024.
This simple Paddy Power guide explains how politics odds work and the four factors that force prices to change.
How politics odds work
Politics odds work in a similar way to sports odds. They reflect the likelihood of an outcome happening. Here’s an example of what we mean:
Paddy Power politics odds example
These are the odds for the next Irish general election and which party will win the most seats. Fine Gael have the shortest odds at 1.67, with Sinn Fein at 3.50 and Fianna Fail at 4.00.
This means Fine Gael are most likely to win the most seats and you’ll earn less profit for a successful bet than if you backed Sinn Fein or Fianna Fail.
The odds show the likelihood of something happening and, naturally, you earn bigger profits if you successfully back a less likely outcome. That’s the same as betting on sports.
However, the difference between sports and politics betting is politics plays by different rules. So, let’s take a look at what influences the political odds…
US presidential races drive the political odds
What affects political odds?
Indeed, we really mean it when we say politics plays by different rules. Unlike in sport, it’s not always the case that the ‘best’ politicians win an election. Moreover, external events can have a huge impact on the odds.
Below are the four main influences that affect how politics odds work:
- Polls – This is the best starting point for bettors and bookmakers alike. The polls show which parties or political figures are popular, and which aren’t. It’s therefore possible to set an odds value to those polls and create a market to bet on. However, the polls aren’t always right. They gave Donald Trump a 10% chance of winning the 2016 presidential election, and were badly wrong.
- Historic data – Betting trends over time help bookmakers set more accurate odds. It might be that a party almost always wins +33% of votes in an election. Therefore the bookie will assume their odds would never dip below that line, unless another factor forces it down. This was the case in the 2024 UK election when it was assumed the Conservatives wouldn’t suffer utter humiliation. They did, suffering their worst-ever electoral defeat. Punters who backed a stinging defeat were well rewarded.
- Bets – This is perhaps the biggest influencer to political betting odds once they are live. If bettors throw money at one outcome then, just like in sport, the odds on that outcome shrink. Meanwhile, the odds on other outcomes widen. That’s how Donald Trump managed to linger around 2.50 to win the 2024 presidential election in the weeks after the 2020 vote. Trump was so determined to cling to power that punters backed him for success four years down the line, and kept his odds artificially low for the time.
- Scandals – Finally, the fourth influence on politics odds is scandals. A prime minister can be sitting on a healthy majority and polling well with the public, only for a scandal to take down their government. It happened in 2021 when Partygate allegations began to surface around Boris Johnson’s premiership. The PM was gone within a year as the public reacted furiously to parties in Downing Street during Covid-19.
So there you have it, four factors that influence politics odds. If you want to know more, why not check out this extensive Politics Betting Guide guide from Paddy Power?