The 2024 US presidential election is on a knife-edge. Rarely do the polls suggest such a tight contest between the Republican and Democrat candidates. Donald Trump was once a sure-fire bet to win the 2024 election, until Joe Biden withdrew from the race and Kamala Harris took his place.
Now the US election odds suggest it’s a coin toss between the pair. It’s likely the race will come down to two or three swing states, and a handful of counties in each of those.
The 2000 election was decided weeks after the vote and focused on the result of a county in Florida that eventually handed George W. Bush the state, and the presidency.
We could have a similar outcome this year and betting on the presidential election reflects the uncertainty around exactly what will happen come 5 November.
But fear not! Paddy Power is here to take you through the election, crunch the numbers, look at the odds, and offer a few tips on what might happen on the night.
Read on and explore Paddy’s ultimate 2024 US presidential election guide!
Donald Trump is locked in the US presidential betting odds
Betting on the US election
There are a lot of different ways you can bet on the US election. The straight-up option is to back the winner between Trump and Harris. But then there are plenty of other options, including betting on the electoral college, individual swing states, gubernatorial races, and everything in between.
Paddy Power houses all US presidential election bets in one place. We’re also offering Power Prices on a range of outcomes and the chance to bet on all US states.
If you want to bet on the US election you need to have an active Paddy Power account. You can sign up today and, once you’ve passed verification and made a deposit, then you’ll be free to explore our odds!
Voters head to the polls on 5 November to choose their next president and it’s going to be a tight contest. So, let’s take a closer look at the best you can make…
Types of US election bets
There are three core types of US election bets available at Paddy Power this year, plus the odd Power Price! Here they are in a little more detail:
Election Winner
You can bet on the US election winner. It’s a straight-up choice between Trump and Harris, and the odds fluctuate regularly around the 2.00 (50%) mark. It’s tough to know who will win this race because the electoral college maths is so complicated. Both candidates are targeting victories in four of seven swing states that will decide the election. All 43 other states are effectively already settled.
Popular Vote Winner
If you don’t care about the electoral college then betting on the popular vote might be a smarter option. Here, you simply bet on which candidate will get the most votes across the country. Biden got seven million more than Trump in 2020. Hillary Clinton got three million more than Trump in 2016 but lost because of the electoral college. In recent years Democrats have won the popular vote but not always the presidency. Harris is likely to beat Trump this year.
Swing State Betting
Now we come to the swing states. There are seven in play in 2024: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin. Harris is likely to win the northern states and must get Pennsylvania to stand any chance of becoming president. Trump is more likely to win the southern states but it’s hard to see how he becomes president if he doesn’t win Georgia. You can bet on each swing state – and even the dead-cert states – at Paddy Power. Keep an eye for regular odds changes as they react to daily polls.
Harris Power Price
Paddy is also offering Power Prices on the US election. For example, you can back Harris to win and get 54% or more of the popular vote. It’s likely she will nail that popular vote figure, so topping it off with a win is certainly viable. Look out for more Power Prices as we get closer to election day!
Harris and Trump odds are locked in the US election race
Harris Odds
Now let’s dig a little deeper into the two 2024 presidential candidates. Harris was way out at 20.00 to be the next president the day before Biden quit. Her odds tumbled to 5.00 and since then they’ve come in to settle at 1.91.
Harris’ odds occasionally move but not by much. The polls suggest this is a neck-and-neck race, so there’s no real reason for the price to shift.
Harris won the TV debate with Trump back in September and that gave her a small advantage for a few days. However, her odds soon reverted back to 1.91. They will probably stay there until election day.
Trump Odds
Trump’s odds have been incredibly volatile in this election cycle. He was always in the running, even after the 2020 result went in Biden’s favour. He crushed his opponents in the Republican primaries and then schooled Biden in their lone TV debate. Trump survived an assassination attempt in the summer and his price fell as short as 1.50 to win the election. But then Harris replaced Biden and Trump’s odds ballooned. He went out to 2.20, before settling back to 1.91.
Trump was exposed during his TV debate with Harris and made to look foolish. But he insisted he won the debate and has enough bedrock support to rely on this November.
The big question is whether he can convince 5% of American voters – the ‘undecideds’ – that he is good for four more years in the White House. The odds suggest it’s a coin toss and Trump doesn’t need to win the popular vote to be president. That could work in his favour.
Harris vs Trump Betting: Who will win?
The big question everyone is asking is who wins between Trump and Harris? Trump had the head start on Harris, and is winning the economic argument among voters. His route to 270 electoral college votes isn’t as difficult as Harris’ and he will be president if he can bag the knife-edge state of Pennsylvania.
Harris is gaining ground, however. She has the bigger financial war chest to spend on advertising, has the ear of women due to Trump’s stance on abortion, and is starting to appeal more to white men with a college degree. Harris must win Pennsylvania but can probably count on Michigan and Wisconsin.
Who will win? It’s impossibly tight. Harris should win the popular vote but Trump could easily edge the electoral college. He’s won from a far worse position before, so why can’t he again?