Next Prime Minister Odds: Latest as Boris Johnson resigns as Conservative leader

BoJo's saying bye bye to 10 Downing Street.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

The party is over with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tendering his resignation, so Paddy Power’s trusty traders have been looking at the runners and riders positioning themselves to take his job.

BoJo survived a no-confidence vote among Conservative MPs earlier this summer but has finally called it quits after seeing more than 50 colleagues resign from their roles in Government leaving him as a lame duck PM.

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As always in Westminster there’s no shortage of people trying to shimmy themselves into contention to be the Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson including former Chancellor Rishi Sunak and ex-Heath Secetary Sajid Javid, whose resignations on Tuesday sparked this chain of events.

There’s a right Motley Crew of contenders, and with dramatic twists and turns every five minutes we’ll take a look at who might be the UK Next Prime Minister throughout the day. You can see Paddy’s latest prices on our snazzy widgets below.

16:00: The leading trio emerge…

A YouGov poll of 716 Conservative party members suggests the leadership race will be a three-horse race between Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, Minister of State for Trade Penny Mordaunt and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak.

When asked who they would like to see replace Boris Johnson as Prime Minister and Tory leader, Ben Wallace came out on top with 13 per cent of the vote, Penny Mordaunt was one point behind in second while Rishi Sunak scooped 10 per cent of the vote. The rest of the potential candidates failed to break into double digits while None of the Above scored 12 per cent…

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Ben Wallace Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

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Penny Mordaunt Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

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Rishi Sunak Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

14:10: Who has already announced their intention to run?

Attorney General Suella Braverman indicated she will go for the Tory crown during an appearance on ITV’s Peston on Wednesday night. After calling on Johnson to step down, she said: “If there is a leadership contest, I will put my name into the ring.

“I love this country, my parents came here with absolutely nothing and it was Britain that gave them hope, security and opportunity. This country has afforded me incredible opportunities in education and in my career. I owe a debt of gratitude to this country and to serve as PM would be the greatest honour, so yes, I will try.”

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Suella Braverman Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

Backbencher Steve Baker, one of the leading Brexiteers, is also considering a crack at the top job. “I’ve got sufficient people imploring me to stand, so I’ve got to think about it seriously myself,” the High Wycombe MP said.

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Steve Baker Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

13:00: Which party will win the next General Election?

Despite being behind Labour in the opinion polls, the Conservatives are the favourites in our Most Seats – Next General Election market. The Tories currently boast 358 MPs in the House of Commons compared to Labour’s 200.

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Conservatives Most Seats - Next General Election

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Labour Most Seats - Next General Election

A party needs to win 326 seats at a General Election to take charge of the country and Conservatives Majority heads the betting for the Government after Next Election (First New Cabinet). A nail-biting vote looks likely with Conservatives Minority, Labour Minority and Labour Majority all available at similar prices.

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Conservatives Majority Government after Next Election (First New Cabinet)

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Conservatives Minority Government after Next Election (First New Cabinet)

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Labour Minority Government after Next Election (First New Cabinet)

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Labour Majority Government after Next Election (First New Cabinet)

12:00: Market Mover!

Ben Wallace is proving a popular figure in our Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson betting, with the Defence Secretary overtaking Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt as the market leader.

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Ben Wallace Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

10:45: When is the next General Election?

General Elections in the UK can be held no more than five years apart so the next poll is not due until January 2025 at the very latest.

However, the Prime Minister has the power to call a General Election after the Conservatives binned the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act earlier this year, which previously required two-thirds of MPs to approve a vote.

So could BoJo’s successor as Leader of the Conservative Party chance their arm by going for a premature poll?

Well, Paddy’s traders reckon no as they have priced 2024 as the most likely Year of Next General Election.

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2024 Year of Next General Election

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2022 Year of Next General Election

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2023 Year of Next General Election

10:00: Who are the runners and riders to be the next Prime Minister?

The days of Dishy Rishi feel like a lifetime ago but, yes, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak was widely tipped as Johnson’s likely successor during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. It’s fair to say his stock has significantly fallen from those dizzying highs – don’t forget the rows about his US green card and wife’s non-dom tax status – but he remains one of the frontrunners.

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Rishi Sunak Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

Penny Mordaunt, the Minister of State for Trade, is another towards the top of our Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson betting market. The Member of Parliament for Portsmouth North since 2010, she has held a number of posts in Government but probably hasn’t been tainted by an association to the soon-to-be-former Prime Minister. Mordaunt came second in a poll of grassroots Tory activists earlier this month.

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Penny Mordaunt Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

She was beaten to top spot by Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who has become a more prominent figure in recent months due to Mad Vlad’s invasion of Ukraine. The Wyre and Preston North MP is popular with the Tory grassroots but was one of the few big-hitters that opted against quitting from Cabinet over the last 48 hours.

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Ben Wallace Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

Liz Truss has been pulling out all the stops to try and look presidential in recent times and remains popular with Tory members. The Foreign Secretary has been pretty loyal to BoJo, however, so it remains to be seen how that will play out during a leadership contest.

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Liz Truss Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

Sajid Javid – or the Saj as some Tories call him – was key in bringing down Johnson with his resignation from the Health Secretary role sparking the crisis. The experienced operator has already held three of the big roles in Government so he’ll probably be gunning for the top job.

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Sajid Javid Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

The current Chancellor of the Exchequer, Nadhim Zahawi, contributed greatly to the banter after calling on BoJo to quit less than 48 hours after being given his current job by the man himself. He’s reportedly been working on a leadership bid behind the scenes.

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Nadhim Zahawi Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

Jeremy Hunt has taken more of a backseat in British politics in the 2020s after being a prominent member of David Cameron and Theresa May’s premierships. Another with plenty of experience, the South West Surrey MP is one who might bring some stability to the rocky world of No.10.

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Jeremy Hunt Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

Tom Tugendhat is another one that might come in under the radar. The MP for Tonbridge and Malling has frequently butted heads with Johnson over key issues and might be considered as the polar opposite to the current PM.

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Tom Tugendhat Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson

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