President Donald Trump and his challenger, Joe Biden, are into the final furlong of their mad dash – in every sense of the word – for the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and, possibly, four more years of the sitting around watching TV and tweeting the first thing that comes into your head.
Oh, and running America.
The campaign – like pretty much all life as we know it – has been overshadowed by the Covid-19 pandemic, but American democracy is set to prevail, provided you don’t have to queue for 12 hours to cast your vote, on Tuesday, November 3 with the victor to be confirmed by… well, that’s where it gets a bit murky.
While national polls show the hairy Wotsit’s Democrat opponent with a lead of between 5 and 10 per cent generally, things are much tighter in crucial states like Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which gives the Golfer-in-Chief a possible path to four more years of making America great again.
Our traders see three possible scenarios playing out in the coming days – and possibly weeks! So if you’re having a punt on the Donald to defy the ‘#fakenews media again – buckle up…
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning
Firstly, anyone on this side of the planet will need to brew-up several large pots of coffee to catch all the polls closing, as Alaska’s final polling both won’t shutter til 6am UK and Ireland time. There could be a clear picture by then with other states closing four or five hours earlier.
If you’re hoping for a reasonably early night and swift settlement of your bets on the Next US President market, a sizeable win for either candidate in Florida, where Biden is currently expected to edge out Trump, coupled with three or four other key states reporting results faster than expected would do the trick for you.
And provided you actually backed the winner, obviously.
However, our number-crunchers are preparing for some extra-time (and overtime) given the state polling and how many early votes have been cast and may have to be counted.
If the margin of victory in key states is too close to call on the evening of the vote, we will have to wait to see what way the votes fall.
Paddy’s US President markets would remain onsite for punting on the possible result as tallies are counted and our traders will be provided with Red Bull intravenously in cases of exhaustion.
If the result in one or several of the crucial states is within 1% or less, a re-count, legal battle, a Supreme Court decision on the winner and many other possibilities open up other than a clear Electoral College vote majority.
This could delay the result and settlement of markets for a lengthy period, but the market rules mean we can settle without waiting for a prolonged period of time if there is a clear and obvious winner, so punters can expect common sense to prevail.
NEW polls –
Florida – Trump 50, Biden 48
Pennsylvania – Biden 51, Trump 44 https://t.co/dGVSvBS4sH
— Rick Klein (@rickklein) November 1, 2020
The most likely contested state scenario if a key state like Florida, Michigan or Pennsylvania is decided by just a few thousand votes. Neither candidate is likely to concede it in that scenario and the projections couldn’t be made given the margins involved.
There is potential after a re-count that a result would be determined, but we could expect legal challenges should the state Electoral College winner be different to the popular vote winner, which would probably be the case should Trump be re-elected.
Which means your miniature American flags could be waved away to threads by the time the next president is confirmed.
But don’t blame us – we voted for Kodos.
Read More on the US Election
- Donald Comes Up Trumps: President More Popular than Biden in the UK
- Biden Shortens After Fiery Debate But Bettors Still Back Trump
- Paddy Takes a Record Number of Bets on Trump v Biden