With more polls flying about than election posters during Storm Brendan, we’ve carried out a deep-dive into the betting figures to get a taste for how punters see the upcoming general election going down.
And we’ve uncovered some intriguing results.
Top the polls with PAddypower.com’s politics markets
It will come as no shock that more than half of the number of total bets placed so far with the firm are on Fianna Fail to secure the largest number of seats.
They are currently available at odds of 1/3, reflecting a 75% probability, in from a price of 8/11, reflecting a less probability of 59.9%.
However, Sinn Fein (50/1) is the second most popular choice, attracting more than a quarter of all bets, 26.1% – putting them well ahead of second favourites Fine Gael (2/1) at 13.3%.
AIB GAA Munster Senior Football Championship Final, Pairc Ui Rinn, Cork 26/11/2017
Nemo Rangers vs Dr. Crokes
Micheal Martin TD pictured at the game
Mandatory Credit ©INPHO/Oisin Keniry
In relation to betting on Ireland’s next Taoiseach, a similar pattern has emerged.
Micheal Martin leads the pack with 33.7% portion of all bets placed on the market. He is currently available with Paddy Power at odds 1/5, a probability of 83.3%, in from an initial price of 4/6, or a 54.5% probability.
He is followed closely by Mary Lou McDonald (66/1, reflecting a 1.5% probability) on 27.9% of the number of bets placed.
This puts Leo Varadkar in third position, just, having attracted little over a quarter of all bets (25.5% presently).
Although he started out at odds of 11/10, which reflects a 47.6% probability, Varadkar has drifted in the betting to odds of 3/1 (giving him significantly reduced likelihood at 25%) he will retain his position as Taoiseach following the general election.
But crucially, when you look at how much is being placed on each leader, the results tell a very different story.
Mary Lou McDonald might be attracting a high number of bets, but she accounts for a portion of just 3.9% of all money being wagered on who will be the next Taoiseach.
Meanwhile, Micheal Martin is attracting a huge 83.4% portion of cash staked. And favourite backers are getting behind Fianna Fail to secure most seats, with a staggering 91.9% of cash wagered going on them.
Our Head of Political Betting, Joe Lee, says: The actions of punters are very much an indication of the slow start to the election campaign for Fine Gael and Leo. He could find it very difficult to change the narrative but he does have time.
He continues: “It’s surprised us to see Mary Lou the more popular selection for Next Taoiseach over Leo Varadker. Also, despite what both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein have indicated to date about going into coalition with one another, Paddy Power punters appear to suggest they could well have the numbers to be bedfellows. It’s 12/1 for a FF/SF coalition, with 6/1 FF/Greens the favourite currently.”
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