Brexit odds latest: Gove for next Tory Leader as May’s deal set to fail again

Following an evening which left everyone saying ‘what the fudge was that?’, we've priced up what may happen in the next chapter of the Brexit saga...


First up, with Theresa May declaring back me or sack me, it’s now rated 1/50 that she will leave this year – in from 1/8 yesterday. The likelihood of a third meaningful vote passing is rated 2/1, or odds-on 1/3 that it doesn’t, which represents around a 75% chance.

Michael Gove is the favourite to be next Tory leader at 7/2, followed by Boris Johnson (4/1), Jeremy Hunt (8/1), Dominic Raab (8/1), Sajid Javid (12/1) and Matthew Hancock (18/1).

Elsewhere, as MP’s voted on eight different Brexit proposals and failed to agree on one, the motion which got the most ‘yes’ votes was the possibility of a second referendum. As a result, bookmakers have cut the likelihood of another vote in from 9/4 to 7/4.

Britain’s Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary Michael Gove leaves from 10 Downing Street on March 26, 2019. – Britain’s parliament began plotting a new Brexit strategy today after seizing the initiative in the floundering process from Prime Minister Theresa May’s government in a historic vote. (Photo by Tolga AKMEN / AFP) (Photo credit should read TOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images)

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And the chance of a General Election taking place this year has also shortened, in from 11/8 last week to 5/4 today (Thursday). May is currently rated the most likely month for it to take place at 6/4.

Our own Paddy Power said: “’What the hell happened last night?’ Is a question I’ve found myself asking a lot throughout my life, but none more than this morning.

“Theresa sounded the Mayday call, and a bunch of MP’s voted no eight times leaving the UK no clearer on Brexit than they have been for the last two years.

“However, based on the events of yesterday, we reckon Michael Gove is poised and ready to become next Tory leader, though a third meaningful vote is unlikely to pass. And the chances of a second Referendum shortened, too. Strap in Britain, there’s more fun coming your way.”


1/50 – Theresa May to leave her post this year
1/3 – A third meaningful vote not to pass
2/1 – A third meaning vote to pass
7/4 – A second EU Referendum to take place this year
6/4 – General Election to take place in May


7/2 – Michael Gove
7/1 – Boris Johnson
8/1 – Jeremy Hunt
8/1 – Dominic Raab
12/1 – Sajid Javid
18/1 – Matthew Hancock

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