Our traders made the call to suspend betting on the no confidence vote following heavy, continued betting on the market and reports of more letters being sent in by Tory MPs.
The odds had fallen from odds-on 1/3 to 1/10 before 10am (Friday), and had been slashed from as high as 5/2 earlier this week.
However, should the vote happen, it’s rated odds-on at 1/2 that May wins it, as opposed to 6/4 for her to lose.
In terms of May’s replacement, Dominic Raab is still the 9/2 favourite, with Sajid Javid (11/2), Boris Johnson (6/1) and Michael Gove (6/1) following him in the market.
Our own party leader Paddy Power said: “With letters flying in from disillusioned Tory lawmakers, we’ve been forced to completely stop taking bets on a vote of no confidence taking place against the Prime Minister.
“However, we are seeing continued support on May to win the vote should it go ahead, in fact a win is rated over 25% more likely than a loss at this stage.”
VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE BETTING
1/10 – A vote of no confidence to happen (now suspended)
1/2 – May to win a vote of no confidence
6/4 – May to lose a vote of no confidence
NEXT CONSERVATIVE LEADER
9/2 – Dominic Raab
11/2 – Sajid Javid
6/1 – Boris Johnson
6/1 – Michael Gove
7/1 – Jeremy Hunt
9/1 – Jacob Rees-Mogg
9/1 – David Davis
16/1 – Penny Mourdaunt