Irish Presidential candidate Peter Casey has shot into second favourite in the betting, with polling day right on the horizon.
The Derry man has gone from 200/1 last week, to odds of 40/1 yesterday and as of this morning Casey is available at a price of 16/1 – putting him directly behind Michael D Higgins in the race to the Aras.
We have slashed the odds on the controversial entrepreneur, having witnessed a major shift in betting activity directly connected to the businessman in recent days.
I’m not afraid to speak out and say what others are thinking, I say what people are too afraid to say. #Aras18 #PeterForPresident #TonightVMT
— Peter Casey (@CaseyPeterJ) October 24, 2018
In the betting without market, which allows punters to bet as if Michael D was excluded from the race, Casey, who had been a 100/1 shot, now finds himself ahead of Sean Gallagher at 10/11.
President Michael D Higgins has maintained his pole position in the betting with Paddy Power throughout the course of this campaign, shortening from and odds-on price of 1/33 to a current price of 1/50 according to Paddy Power’s odds.
“Peter Casey started out as a complete no-hoper and was dead-last in the betting when he first threw his name into the ring. He was a massive 500/1 shot when he secured his place on the ballot paper in the outright market. Now he’s second favourite,” a Paddy Power spokesperson explained.
We haven’t seen such a concentration of bets on one candidate in a politics market since Donald Trump’s 2016 USA Presidential Election campaign.
More than half of all bets (54%) on the outright market have been on Casey, and in the Betting Without Higgins market, 80% of the bets have been on him.
“A win for Casey would leave us in tears as he is by far the biggest loser for Paddy Power. On the upside, we suspect we wouldn’t be the only ones crying into our cereal if that were to come to pass,” a Paddy Power spokesperson added.
One Paddy Power shop customer stands to pocket at six-figure sum if Casey becomes President of Ireland, having backed him early at a price of 500/1.
As for the other candidates, the biggest surprise so far has been how badly Gavin Duffy has performed. He was the first of the Dragons to declare an interest in running back in the summer with many people tipping him to be the main challenger to Michael D.
He opened at 10/1, but has become the forgotten man thanks to Mr. Casey and is now sitting at 500/1 outsider to be president and 4/9 fav in our Lowest 1st Preference Vote market.
As President of Ireland, I will shorten my term to 5 years so that the next Presidential election coincides with the local elections and cuts the cost for the people of Ireland #Aras18 #PeterForPresident @IrelandAMVMT
— Peter Casey (@CaseyPeterJ) October 24, 2018
Sean Gallagher’s attempts to make it a two-horse race by sitting out of debates skipped by Michael D has backfired, meaning he hasn’t been able to gather the type of momentum he had in 2011 when he came within the width of a brown envelope of the presidency.
Liadh Ni Riada has put in a solid performance, which you’d expect from the only candidate with the full backing of a party behind her.
But, Joan Freeman hasn’t really registered and we predict anything above 5% of 1st preference vote to be a good result for her at this stage.
IRISH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2018 OUTRIGHT1/50 Michael D Higgins
16/1 Peter Casey
50/1 Sean Gallagher
66/1 Liadh Ni Riada
250/1 Joan Freeman
500/1 Gavin Duffy
10/11 Peter Casey
6/4 Sean Gallagher
5/1 Liadh Ni Riada
50/1 Joan Freeman
66/1 Gavin Duffy
