With the house of cards falling around her, huge pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Theresa May – with bookmakers now expecting her to step down before the end of the summer recess.
Though May is seeking to preserve her position by bringing the recess forward, we believe it is too little too late and we’ve stopped taking bets on May resigning in Q3 of this year.
That follows a surge of bets on the market, which prompted a price-cut from 11/8 to 10/11 yesterday, before betting was suspended this morning.
Another market attracting massive attention over the last week is ‘Next Conservative Leader’, which has Jacob Rees-Mogg (5/1) as the favourite, ahead of Home Secretary Sajid Javid (6/1), and Michael Gove (6/1).
Boris Johnson, whose resignation heaped more pressure on May last week, is fourth-favourite – but more bets have been placed on him entering the Big Brother house (16/1) than becoming Conservative leader.
A Tory leadership contest is now odds-on to occur this year (10/11), while a General Election is priced at 10/3 – a second EU referendum before April 1st 2019 is into 3/1 from 10/1.
A ‘no deal’ in Brexit negotiations by the EU’s deadline is also now odds-on, at 4/7.
Joe Lee, our Head of Political Betting, said: “A growing number have joined the Tory rebellion in recent weeks – but that’s nothing on the numbers betting on Mrs May standing down this quarter.
“The Prime Minister is calling for Parliament to take an early holiday this summer – perhaps she fancies making it a permanent one herself.”
Next Conservative leader
5/1 Jacob Rees-Mogg
6/1 Sajid Javid
6/1 Michael Gove
8/1 Boris Johnson
Year of next General Election
4/7 No Brexit by April 1st 2019
3/1 A second EU referendum by April 1st 2019