A rake of eve-of-election polls came out last night ahead of today’s vote. All but one of the major pollsters, called a Tory victory by a single-digit, vote-share margin average at around 7 per cent. Good luck to Survation, who alone among pollsters, are calling for a hung parliament.
Today is your last chance to bet on the election and my last chance to change my tips.
Here’s the wrap ….
I’m sticking with my main call that the Tories are going to win a clear majority and form the government after the next election.
I have been being betting against the LibDems on the under/over markets all the way down. I still suspect they won’t gain much – if anything – on their eight seats.
In the constituencies, I’m sticking with the Tories winning Stoke-on-Trent South at 1/4 for the first time ever. I’m also sticking with Kate Hoey winning in Vauxhall at 1/7, despite the LibDems throwing everything at the Brexit backing, fox-hunting Labour MP.
I have changed my mind on one constituency tip though.
Chris Bryant will keep his Rhondda seat. When I tipped him to lose it to the Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru, Labour were behind the Tories in the polls in Wales. Labour are now back ahead. The decline in the Tory poll lead will be enough to send him back to Westminster.
I have laid all my bets off on the Rhondda result and taken a smaller loss this morning rather than a bigger loss tonight.
I’m sticking with Peter Whittle, being worth a little flutter for next UKIP leader at 3/1. Poor Paul Nuttall hasn’t enjoyed the election and won’t hang around for long. For good measure I don’t think UKIP will win a single seat
I haven’t bet on exactly how many seats the Tories will gain, that is for braver punters than me. Good luck!
See the 20/1 shot Guido is backing to be next Labour leader