Labour have popped in the polls after Theresa May’s manifesto has gone down badly, particularly the so called “dementia tax”. Let’s get some perspective:
Above is a rolling average of all national polls. Labour’s polling percentage has risen this month from the high 20s to the low 30s as their campaign has kicked off surprisingly well. This is good news for Labour MPs in marginals and suggests talk of a 200 seat majority for May is fanciful.
On the other hand, this has not been at the expense of the Tories. Their percentage average has also risen from the mid 40s to the high 40s. All the movement has come from the crushing of UKIP and the LibDems – which is why Guido told you to 2 weeks ago to bet against the LibDems.
The average poll gap between Labour and the Tories has narrowed from 18 per cent to 16 per cent, if you think this is a trend and will hold, back Labour to get over 176.5 seats at 5/6.
However, if you think this is just a mid-campaign blip, back the boring inevitability of a Tory majority, which is currently priced at 1/10.
- Red Rum, or Blue Murder? Will the rampant Tories inflict the worst damage on Labour since ’83? Odds on PaddyPower.com