For all the talk of a Liberal Democrats revival and tweets about the #LibDemFightback on the back of 48 per cent support for Remain in the referendum, the ‘revival’ did not actually amount to much when it came to the local elections last week.
Unbelievably, the yellow peril somehow managed to lose over 30 council seats.
How did LibDem leader Tim Farron stumble so badly?
Blink and you’ll miss it. We managed to capture Tim Farron’s little slip on the Liberal Democrat campaign bus live on air this morning pic.twitter.com/WfDOXfQnXy
— Sky News (@SkyNews) May 8, 2017
In truth he didn’t really, Farron’s playing his hand adeptly as he can. The first rule of politics is to ‘know how to count’.
UKIP were, until the referendum, the third party – there are simply more homeless UKIP voters post-Brexit than there are Remainers and they’re not going to transfer to the LibDems. They are going to transfer to either Labour on class grounds or the Tories for the ‘let’s get on with Brexit’ reason.
Voting UKIP was in hindsight a gateway to voting Tory.
That is why Theresa May gained over 500 hundred seats last week and the LibDems lost seats despite Labour’s dire situation. More Ukippers went to the Tories than LibDems gained from Remainers.
On that basis the LibDems will be lucky to double the eight MPs they have and get more than 16 seats, Mark Littlewood reckons they may even lose seats and Littlewood is their former spin-doctor!
Take the under 16.5 seats at 8/11 if you think Theresa May and Lynton Crosby are going to repeat the same trick they did in the locals next month.