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Guido Fawkes: The Tories are a nailed-on certainty, but the value lies in constituency betting

Labour face decimation at the polls, while this 8/1 shot could be the next UKIP leader after the General Election

If you took my tip two years ago to back Jeremy Corbyn for Labour leader at 6/1 you’ll be hoping for more of the same. I will do my best to bring you more bet ideas between now and election day on June 8.

The Tories winning is – sticking my neck out here – a nailed on certainty. It is 1/14 with Paddy Power that they will form the government after the next election, which is a pretty safe bet giving you a 7 per cent return if you can wait a month. That’s better than you’ll get down the bank.

It is in the individual constituencies that you will find surprises. Hats off to Paddy Power for pricing up all the hundreds of constituencies, a great opportunity for people with local knowledge to beat the pollsters.

I’ve put my money on Stoke-on-Trent South falling to the Tories for the first time ever. Though currently at 1/5, it is still worth a punt if you fancy a 20 per cent return on your stake next month. That price tells you a lot about the prospects for the Labour Party – they are becoming long-odds against winning even in former safe seats.

If you think UKIP are going to flop at this election,  then their current leader Paul Nuttall could be off next month and they will be plunged into yet another leadership vote.

Former leader Nigel Farage is not coming back and the loud-mouthed, tweeting tycoon, Arron Banks, has better things to do.

My tip is the little known Peter Whittle, currently deputy leader. At 8/1 he is worth a little flutter.

What do you think?