With the US presidential election already less than one month away (November 8), Paddy Power has delved deep into the figures to deliver fascinating insight into where the money has travelled on candidates throughout the mammoth campaign so far.
Since the market opened on the election four years ago, it’s had more twist-and-turns than Paul Pogba’s transfer saga. Who needs Jose vs Pep now that Trump vs Clinton has emerged, right?
However, our political boffins have crunched the numbers and they reveal a captivating timeline on how the race to the White House has developed in the lengthy run up to the vote.
Latest odds (October 13)
- 1/6 Hillary Clinton
- 5/1 Donald Trump
(Clinton’s odds continue to shorten as more allegations surface in relation to Trump’s conduct towards women).
Firstly, here’s a brief summary on how our traders have calculated the election odds to date.
The odds for any market are initially drawn up by analysis of a number of factors.
- Precedents for the situation and previous election data where possible
- General opinion and expert opinion (internal or external)
- Polling figures, where available – huge role to play in offering a snapshot of current voting intention
Once the market is open, the changing events and updated polling figures continue to have an effect, but money placed on the runners can now be used to shape and hone the market. The market becomes, in part, an expression of the multiple investments made.
Whilst a market is running, a poll result that represents new trend of change will normally affect the traders’ opinions and also the flow of cash.
During this campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump – largely due to his high profile – has attracted far more bets than any other outsider despite his initial odds of 100/1 when the market opened in 2012.
Admittedly, Paddy Power was slow to cut his odds throughout the campaign, which has now led to him becoming the biggest political liability in bookmaking history.
Should the New Yorker find his way into the Oval Office this November, Paddy Power will be looking at a meaty seven-figure payout to customers who backed the former TV star.
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has been the favourite from the outset and has held on to that tag for the vast majority of the election campaign.
Traditionally one would expect the favourite to attract the majority of the turnover in a betting market such as this, however this hasn’t been the case in this instance with Trump accounting for 44.3% of turnover to Clinton’s 35.1%.
The property tycoon has also attracted far more individual bets, with 44.3% of all wagers been put on the Republican candidate. Clinton is only accounting for 14.9% of individual bets placed.
While Clinton’s figure may seem low, it’s worth noting that odds-against shots (i.e. 2/1 as opposed to 1/2) tend to attract a higher number of low stakes wagers.
To date there have been 97 four-figure plus bets on Trump as opposed to 84 four-figure plus bets on Clinton.
Check out our timeline below (up to October 7)