The Enda is near according to Paddy's political poll...
Time to pack up the desk?
After six weeks of not having a government, Enda Kenny became the first ever Fine Gael Taoiseach to win a re-election as he was voted in by a margin of 59 to 49 votes on May 6. However, a week later and in Ireland’s first political poll since the decision was made, Paddy Power and Red C can reveal that almost half of people want him to pack up his things and step down.
Results show that more than half the population have no confidence in the government to run the country, and 45 per cent of people don’t think the current government will last more than a year. Just 25 per cent of people think that Enda Kenny should see out his full term in office, and incredibly six per cent of people would prefer to have Donald Trump as Taoiseach than Mr Kenny!
On the sticky issue of water charges, 61 per cent want Irish Water to be abolished, however 59 per cent of of the population would pay the charges in the future if they were re-introduced.
Key Findings
Vote Behaviour
• The slow pace of formation on a new government appears to have had little impact on voters claimed behaviour if another election were to be held tomorrow, with support for most of the major parties within the margin of error of the actual result.
• Fine Gael (27%) retain a small lead over Fianna Fail (25%), and this is actually even closer when decimal point rounding is removed. Sinn Fein do see some small gains in support rising to 16%, approximately 2% ahead of what they achieved at the election. Labour at 5% support are 2% below what they achieved at the last election.
• The Independent candidates appear to have suffered most following the government formation, with Independent Candidates down 4% to secure 9% in this poll, while the Independent Alliance are also down 1% since the election, continuing an apparent downward trend, albeit within the margin of error.
• The AAA-PBP, Greens and the Social Democrats all appear to come out of negotiations quite well, despite most not having taken part, with gains for all three parties vs the actual election results.
Figurehead Satisfaction
• Micheal Martin sees his satisfaction rating fall back from the highs of the campaign but does still get better ratings than any of his competitive set – his rating among his own party supporters is however at its highest level ever. Enda Kenny’s ratings also fall back, with Shane Ross (measured for the first time) at a similar level to him. Gerry Adams satisfaction ratings are at the lowest level seen for some time.
Confidence in Government to Last
• Over half the population (52%) do not have confidence in the government to run the country, including 20% of Fine Gael voters, and 69% of those who voted for Independent candidates. Confidence is lowest among the 25-54 year old age groups.
• It is no surprise then that almost half of all voters (45%) do not believe the government will last more than a year, with almost a third (31%) of Fine Gael voters feeling that this will be the case.
• Well over half of all voters (56%) also believe that the lack of a government has been harmful to the Irish Economy
Fine Gael Leadership
• Close to half of all voters (48%) believe that Enda Kenny should step down now as leader of Fine Gael and Taoiseach, including 18% of Fine Gael voters; while a further 18% believe he should go in the next 1-2 years. Just 1 in 4 believe he should stay the full length of his term in office.
• Leo Varadkar is the voters favourite to succeed Enda Kenny, with 32% of all voters and 39% of Fine Gale voters supporting him to replace the current Taoiseach. Varadkar support is relatively stronger among younger voters, those in more upmarket social groups and in Dublin.
• Simon Coveney is the second favourite to succeed Enda Kenny with 25% support among all voters and 28% among Fine Gael voters. His support is much more polarised, with very strong support among older voters, but much weaker support among younger age groups.
Irish Water
• A significant proportion of voters (61%) believe that Irish Water should now be abolished, with those in younger age groups and Sinn Fein supporters most likely to feel this.
• Over two thirds (71%) also believe that those who have paid their water charges to date should be refunded, while only around a third of voters (34%) feel that those who haven’t paid should be perused through the courts for payment.
• Despite this well over half of voters (59%) suggest that they would pay water charges in the future were they to be introduced again.
Armed Gardaí
• Close to two thirds of voters (62%) agree that the Gardaí should be armed to protect themselves and citizens against mob violence in Ireland.
School Funding
• Three in five (60%) also agree that it should be made illegal for schools in receipt of any State funding to use religion as a criterion for admission
The Lighter Side
• On the lighter side 6% of voters would prefer to see Donald Trump as Taoiseach rather than either Micheal Martin or Enda Kenny. Half (49%) would prefer to see Micheal Martin as Taoiseach, while only a third (36%) would pick Enda Kenny.
• On the same theme more people would like to have dinner with Donald Trump (34%) than Enda Kenny (28%), but Micheal Martin trumps them both with 44% of voters wanting to have dinner with him.
• Finally very few voters in Ireland (8%) trust Donald Trump to have his finger on the nuclear button, with far more voters trusting either Enda Kenny (27%) or Micheal Martin (32%),