There’s a skill to picking the right players in a daily fantasy contest for sure, but it’s almost as important to know who not to pick too.
Narrowing down your shortlist of potential plays by avoiding those who are overpriced and/or in tough matchups goes a long way towards ensuring that your best team any given week.
Here’s three guys we think you’ve got to duck this week.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 22: Carson Wentz #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles warms up prior to the preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens at Lincoln Financial Field on August 22, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles – £7,400
It has not been a great 2019 so far for Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles, and unfortunately, a matchup this week with the Chicago Bears may not get him on track, either.
First, let’s look at the signal-caller’s performance recently. He’s passed for fewer than 200 yards in four of his last five games, and his efficiency has been so-so. His mark of 0.11 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back ranks him 20th among the 33 quarterbacks with 100 or more drop backs.
Facing Chicago’s third-ranked passing defence could make for another long afternoon, and Wentz doesn’t offer enough upside in this spot to be worth rolling the dice on as a contrarian play.
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – OCTOBER 27: Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans leaps over Andrew Adams #39 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the 4th quarter of the NFL football game at Nissan Stadium on October 27, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Bryan Woolston/Getty Images)
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans – £6,800
Priced as a top-10 back this week, Derrick Henry has been very consistent this season, reaching double-digit points in six of eight contests.
But this week is going to be a tough one. The Tennessee Titans have an implied team total of only 19.50 points based on the betting lines for this game, and that’s partially because of their underdog status against the Carolina Panthers.
While Carolina has struggled against the run this year, they’re third-best against the pass, per our so Ryan Tannehill and this offence could have a long day. Plus, Tennessee’s methodical offence doesn’t do it any favours as they rank 26th overall in overall pace of play.
If Henry sees a positive game script, this could be a good spot for him, but if the Titans fall behind, he could post a low number.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – OCTOBER 13: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Minnesota Vikings waves to fans after the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at U.S. Bank Stadium on October 13, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Diggs scored three touchdowns in the Vikings victory. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings – £7,900
Over the last few weeks, Stefon Diggs has been absolutely ballin’ out for the Minnesota Vikings, recording a combined 21 catches and at least 140 receiving yards in each game. He’s now passed the century mark in receiving yards in four consecutive contests.
While his matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs looks fairly juicy, this Chiefs pass D has quietly been pretty good, clocking in 11th via our per-play metrics. Also, it looks likely that stud wideout Adam Thielen will suit up, eating into Diggs monster market share a bit.
If Thielen sits, then Diggs could go off again, but if Thielen suits up, Diggs is a lot tougher to stomach at his pricey salary.
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