Dewayne Dedmon, C, Sacramento Kings (£4,000)
The Sacramento Kings are in a higher scoring game — 225.5 total — and facing a very weak defensive opponent.
The Kings don’t have a ton of options at center and power forward, which has led to Dewayne Dedmon playing 20 minutes or more in two of the four games this season, but he’s yet to produce one fantasy point per minute in any game. The lack of production is very noticeable, but there is a good matchup for him to post his first big game of the year. He is up against the Charlotte Hornets, who are allowing 88.0 fantasy points per game to opposing centers to start the season, the second-worst in the league.
Dedmon, surprisingly, has a 25.4% usage rate this season with Marvin Bagley III off the court but is only producing 0.63 points per minute. If that usage rate stays the same, the production should rise tonight given how favourable this matchup is.
Dario Saric, PF, Phoenix Suns (£4,700)
With an over/under sitting at 229.5 points, the Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors is looking like an ideal fantasy game.
Dario Saric has played 20 minutes or more in each of his four games this season, where he has managed to produce 0.71 fantasy points per minute. While that might not be amazing, the price is right on Saric tonight, and the matchup versus the Warriors is worth attacking, since they have struggled to start the season.
Golden State is allowing 42 points per game to power forwards this season, which is reflected in our projections. We have him going for 22.1 points in 27 minutes tonight, making him our 11th-best value at power forward tonight.
Frank Ntilikina, PG, New York Knicks (£3,500)
The New York Knicks have plenty of injury notes to start the season, which has opened up a ton of value.
Both Elfrid Payton and Dennis Smith have been ruled out for tonight’s game versus the Orlando Magic, which should leave Frank Ntilikina as the starter. He comes in as the absolute minimum salary tonight and is now facing the Magic who are 16th in the league versus point guards this season. We are dealing with an over/under set at only 209 — the lowest on the slate — but we have a minimum priced player who should be in the starting lineup.
We have Ntilikina projected for over 22 minutes, which would match up with what he played on Monday night against the Bulls. It’s no secret that he hasn’t been amazing for the Knicks, which is very clear in those 22 minutes from Monday (2.4 points). Regardless of that, Ntilikina’s minimum price point might be too much to pass up on this slate where paying up for stars is the way to go.
Joe Harris, SF, Brooklyn Nets (£4,700)
At sub £5K, Joe Harris provides plenty of upside with his three-point ability.
Through three games this season, Harris has taken 19 three-point attempts, which is tied for the second-highest on the Brooklyn Nets. The former three-point champion has a high of 22.8 fantasy points this season and a low of 19.4 points. That’s a very tight range to start the season, but he also hasn’t scored more than 14 real points. He doesn’t always contribute a ton in the peripheral stats, which can minimize his total output, but when the threes start pouring in, he can exceed 5x fantasy value easily.
He is up against the Indiana Pacers, who are one of the better defensive teams in the league, but we have an over/under set at 220 points here, with the Nets only favoured by 3.5 points. A high-scoring, close game has always proven to be very fantasy-friendly and getting a player who is under £5K brings plenty of upside.
Anthony Tolliver, PF, Portland Trail Blazers (£3,700)
Another team with injuries early in the season means cheaper players are getting plenty of minutes.
That team is the Portland Trail Blazers, and that player is Anthony Tolliver, who is getting some playing time with Zach Collins out due to a shoulder injury. In his first game starting, Tolliver played 28 minutes — posted 24.5 fantasy points — and is still under £4K tonight. Yes, that’s under one fantasy point per minute, but at his price point, we don’t need massive production from him. We only need him to reach value, which would be 18.5 fantasy points tonight given 5x salary-based expectations.
Cheaper players in high-scoring games is going to be a constant theme this season, so jump on board. The Trail Blazers are up against the Oklahoma City Thunder, where the over/under is set at 223, with a spread of only one-point, meaning we should see a very competitive game from both teams. Given his new role in the offence, Tolliver comes in as out 10th-best value option at power forward tonight, making him a viable play on this slate.