There’s plenty of stuff out there telling you which players you should target in daily fantasy.
And you should definitely check out all the ones we have on Paddy Power News!
But an underrated aspect of the game is figuring out who you shouldn’t play. Narrowing down your shortlist of potential plays by avoiding those who are overpriced and/or in tough matchups goes a long way towards ensuring that you create optimal lineups.
Who should you fade this week
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson has been absurdly good for the Seattle Seahawks so far in 2019 — like insanely good. Through five games, the signal-caller has posted an average of 25.3 FanDuel points-per-game, providing a very strong floor to his base. Our metrics show he’s balled out, too. Wilson owns a Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) mark of 0.36 per drop back, third-best among quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks.
While the Cleveland Browns, Wilson’s Week 6 opponent, have been a bit up-and-down this year, their defence has been very solid. They rank 13th against the pass this year, and they have really gotten after the passer, ranking seventh in Adjusted Sack Rate. That doesn’t bode well for Wilson, who plays behind an offensive line that ranks 17th in sack rate.
Pace indicators also don’t favour Wilson — both of these teams play some slow football, in terms of both overall pace (bottom 10 each), and they are both in the bottom six in terms of situation-neutral pace.
It’s hard fading one of fantasy’s best players this year, but this doesn’t look like a great week to start Russell Wilson.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The workhorse of the Dallas Cowboys offence, Ezekiel Elliott has been outstanding this year. Despite having a murky contract situation, Zeke has come back with a vengeance, ranking 14th in Rushing NEP per carry (0.11), and he’s been even better in terms of Rushing Success Rate (48.24%, sixth).
This may come as a surprise to some, but against the lowly New York Jets, Elliott may not go crazy. We have the Jets ranked as the fourth-best run-stuffing defence per our per-play metrics, and they’ve basically wiped out opposing rushers. Nick Chubb and Jordan Howard were held to 62 rushing yards apiece, adding to this performance.
As 7.0-point favourites this week, along with 85% of the total bets coming on Dallas, per oddsFire, it would logically make sense that Elliott is in line for a pile of work. However, given his tough matchup, it may not be a bad time to consider fading Elliott.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
There are three very good football teams in the NFC West, and perhaps the most surprising outfit of the bunch is the San Francisco 49ers. So how have they done it?
This defence is humming. This team ranks first overall, including first against the pass, and they have wiped out nearly all opposing passers and wide receivers. Jameis Winston (194 passing yards, three interceptions), Mason Rudolph (174 yards, one interception), and Baker Mayfield (100 passing yards, two interceptions) have all been eviscerated by that D.
That could equate to a tough day not only for Jared Goff, but also for stud wideout Cooper Kupp. Kupp has recorded 15-plus FanDuel points in four straight weeks, but he may not make it five straight against the 49ers.