We’re trying to find some fantasy defences that deserve consideration in fantasy football this week. It’s not worth anyone’s time to tell you the New England D/ST are a good play every week, they’re expensive in Daily Fantasy and already rostered in your league.
Our aim is to find you cheaper plays to fill out your cash lineup or under-owned home run swings for big Daily tournaments or week-to-week streaming. So who’s good value in Week 6?
Projection: 9.3 Points
This doesn’t feel comfortable, but the Washington D/ST has the highest projection on the main slate. That alone makes the unit an option in all game forms, considering the price is fine. I’m not totally convinced the Washington Redskins are that much better than the Miami Dolphins, but they do enter as 3.5-point road favourites. And the numbers help paint a picture as to why.
For one, Miami’s offence ranks 31st by Net Expected Points, and likely would rank dead last if not for Sam Darnold contracting mononucleosis. Per Football Outsiders, the Dolphins offensive line is 30th in adjusted sack rate. Washington’s defence, meanwhile, ranks a more respectable 19th in adjusted sack rate.
Facing a bottom-three offensive line as road favourites, Washington makes for a compelling if low-floor play this week.
Projection: 7.3 Points
This one is pretty simple. The Minnesota D/ST is eighth in projections, yet is priced as the 13th-most expensive defence on the slate. These seem like an egregious matchup-based adjustment considering the Minnesota Vikings are three-point home favourites and also rank as the fifth-best defence in the league by Net Expected Points.
So that’s really it. Minnesota is just far too cheap for a defence this good and favoured at home. In fact, the Philadelphia Eagles offence only ranks 23rd by Net Expected Points this year. The Vikings defence should be a cash lock at this price.
San Francisco 49ers
Projection: 5.6 Points
I’m fading our projections to dive deeper into the on-field matchup and uncover some low-owned upside. The San Francisco D/ST is in a similar spot to what the Green Bay Packers were in Week 5. They are also 3.5-point road underdogs, but with a huge matchup to exploit on defence.
San Francisco’s pass rush ranks third in adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders, while Jared Goff’s passer rating drops from 97 to 62 when under pressure this season. In fact, per Net Expected Points metric, the Niners defence ranks as the number one overall defence in the league, ahead of the New England D/ST. On the road as underdogs, nobody is going to click the Niners in the lineups. And that makes them an exciting (and cheap) option this week.