Every week in Daily Fantasy there is a player who comes out of nowhere to be the slate-breaker. These seemingly incognito players can be game-changers if you manage to roster them during the right week.
Tournament-only fliers have plenty of appeal, offering low ownership, below-value pricing, cheap stacking options, roster flexibility and underrated ceilings.
Here’s a few speculative selections who could make a huge difference on Sunday and separate your team from the crowd.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
The Cincinnati Bengals / Arizona Cardinals game has all the makings of a shootout. PaddyPower.com projects this match-up for the second-highest over/under (47.5) of the main slate. A back and forth, aerial onslaught should be the most likely outcome as Arizona ranks first in pass plays per game, while Cincinnati ranks 3rd. Both defences reside near the bottom of the basement in passing DVOA.
Kyler Murray finds himself in a prime position to breakout as the Cards should be playing from behind, and that will lead to plenty of passing opportunities against a Swiss cheese secondary. The rookie is the third-best value at the position, and is projected for the third-most points despite being the twelfth most expensive QB on the slate.
The Cardinals will be without Christian Kirk and Damiere Byrd, which means stacking the Arizona offence will be easier, as targets will be more tightly distributed. Tournament ownership is likely to be sub 10% given that Deshaun Watson will be the preferred QB on the Sunday slate for most.
Murray is going to win folks a lot of money in Week 5.
Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets
Sam Darnold returned to New York Jets practice on Wednesday, for the first time since recovering from mono. Fortunate for Jets fans, the New York beat reporters seem cautiously optimistic that Darnold may suit up against Philly.
Robby Anderson is coming off a brutal run of match-ups with the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots. In a dream match-up, the perpetually torched Eagles secondary ranks 30th versus the position.
With a two-touchdown spread, it’s likely that New York will be in constant passing situations. The Jets wideout is only priced at £5,500 but his fantasy projection of 9.4 points could see a 1-2 point boost with Darnold starting. That uptick would make Anderson one of the best values on the slate.
At sub 5% ownership, Robby Anderson can be sprinkled into lineups as a true dart throw.
Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans
Texans receiver Kenny Stills sustained a hamstring injury against the Panthers and is day-to-day according to head coach Bill O’Brien. If Stills does indeed miss Sunday’s bout with Atlanta, then teammate Will Fuller needs to be a core member of your GPP lineups.
Stills missing would free up 11.3% of the Houston target share that includes 1.25 deep ball targets per game for Fuller, who has turbo 4.32 speed and is due for a breakout game against the Falcons 27th ranked defence.
While he is only averaging eight fantasy points per game, Fuller ranks 12th in air yards making him primed for a spike week. Deshaun Watson will be over-owned in tournaments and Fuller is a cheap way to grab some exposure to the Texans, who have the third-highest expected team total in betting markets for the Sunday slate.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Everyone and their mother will be on David Johnson, as the Cardinals back is the single best value at any position on the slate. One way to leverage DJ ownership while still getting exposure to this game is by pivoting to Joe Mixon. The Bengals most recent pitiful performance on Monday night will be fresh in punters’ minds.
Rostering Mixon is the perfect way to take advantage of recency bias. The Bengals back is £300 more expensive but offers all the same match-up advantages as David Johnson.
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia has the second-highest spread (-15.0) and largest projected team total (29 points) of the slate.
At only £6,000, surely this is Miles Sanders week?
With constant positive game script, the rookie back should see easy sledding against a Jets defence that ranks among the weakest in the league. Thanks to Jordan Howard’s performance against the Packers, recency bias will be in the rookie’s favour.
Sanders is cheap, low-owned, and can easily fit into a game stack and I expect the first-year pro to get his largest workload of the season.
OJ Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is the week of underperformers finally breaking out and I can’t think of another player who has fallen so far out of the graces of fantasy gamers than OJ Howard.
Prior to the start of the season, Howard was a lock and load top 5 tight end with upside to spare. Although the Bucs started off slow out of the gate, their recent point eruptions have somehow omitted Howard.
Volume has been the main culprit hurting the Bucs tight end, as he has failed to garner more than five targets in a game. When he has gotten targets, his 88th percentile athleticism has shown as he ranks fourth in yards per target. Offensive Coordinator Byron Leftwhich would do well to utilize Howard’s 98th percentile speed score by targeting the former Alabama tight end down the field, where he is at his best.
If Howard can catch Winston’s eye on more than four targets than his efficiency and athleticism will take over, leading to what should be his best game of the season.