Every week in Daily Fantasy NFL, there’s a player who comes from nowhere to be the slate-breaker. These seemingly incognito players can be game-changers if you manage to roster them during the right week.
Tournament-only fliers have plenty of appeal – they’ll have low ownership, below value pricing, are cheap stacking options, have roster flexibility and underrated ceilings. But trying to nail that one freak play every week, it’s not easy. Here are a few decent shots for Week 4.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford against the Kansas City Chiefs’ defence is a pure volume play that can’t be ignored in tournaments.
The key here is to disregard the Detroit Lions reputation of being a slow-paced, run-first offence. Detroit actually ranks 10th in pass attempts and 9th in adjusted yards per attempt. The Kansas City defence gave up the most pass attempts in 2018 and the ninth-most so far in 2019. The game is projected as a shootout with the highest over/under total points on Paddypower.com, at 54.5, on the slate.
With the Chiefs’ offence going berserk, Stafford should be forced into constant passing situations. Besides volume, he offers low ownership, stackability, and projected top-10 value at a mid-tier price.
Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Christian Kirk ranks third in the NFL in targets and is coming off a 15.9-point performance, yet his price remains locked in at $5,900, same as last week. Even with exceptional volume, there is still meat on the bone for Kirk, who has yet to record a touchdown.
The Arizona Cardinals lead the league in passing attempts. Combine the Cardinals’ aerial onslaught with Kirk’s ability after the catch and, eventually, he is going to break through for a massive game.
We make Kirk as the best point-per-dollar wideout value on the slate and with good reason. The Cards’ playmaker is the 29th most expensive receiver but is projected for the 8th most points. Continue to ride the hot hand that is Christian Kirk.
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
I could spend all day heaping praises on Marquise Brown. The rookie is downright electric, ranking in the top six in fantasy points per route, receiving yards, deep-ball targets, and total target distance.
Brown has to be drooling at the prospect of lining up against the walking wounded secondary of the Cleveland Browns.
As of today, both Cleveland starting cornerbacks (Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward) are not practising, which means journeyman Terrance Mitchell and his snail-like 4.63 40 time will have to keep pace with one of the most explosive players in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens are implied for the fourth-highest team total, and Brown should see his fair share of opportunities. Hollywood Brown’s sub £6,000 price makes the Ravens’ receiver one of the best values at the position.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
It can be challenging for fantasy players to separate season-long leagues from daily fantasy when it comes to rostering Todd Gurley. In season-long, there is a natural stigma to considering a back with an ambiguous health situation. The good news is on Paddy Power Fantasy is that we can leverage our opponents bias to our own advantage without taking on too big a risk.
In Week 4, Gurley is in an advantageous position to exceed his cost, as he is projected for the 5th most points on Paddy Power Fantasy but is the 10th most expensive back on the main slate. The Los Angeles Rams are a different team at home, scoring 10 more points per game in LA, on average, in 2018. The Rams boast the third-highest implied team total this week as nine-point favourites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which could lead to positive game script opportunities for Gurley.
Trips to the red zone could happen frequently for LA, especially when factoring in turnover-prone nature of Jameis Winston, who ranks third in interceptable passes.
Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts
There likely won’t be a lower-owned workhorse than Marlon Mack in Week 4. The Indianapolis Colts’ back leads the league in carries and ranks in the top 12 in weighted opportunities. The problem lies in the pricing as Mack is in a running back dead zone at £7,300. Most fantasy players will look to either pay up into the £8,000 range or pay down for a discounted David Johnson at £6,800.
The Colts are in an ideal matchup at home against the Oakland Raiders. The travelling Raiders have been abysmal on the road. The silver and black have been outscored by an average of 15.2 points away from Oakland. This scoring disparity manifests with Indy being favoured by just under a touchdown. Look for Mack to be in line for a massive workload in favourable scoring conditions.
13 catches, 134 yards. Darren Waller is a legit #FantasyFootball baller.
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) September 22, 2019
Darren Waller, TE, Oakland Raiders
It’s not often that I tout a player that is projected to be highly owned, but I’m willing to make an exception for Darren Waller. Waller is a freak athlete (75th percentile SPARQ), but what’s more astounding about the ex-Raven is his top-ranked target share of 30%. His elite athleticism aligns perfectly with Derek Carr’s knack for playing things conservatively.
There isn’t a better matchup for a tight end than the Colts. Over the last six games, Indy’s defence has allowed opposing tight ends to average an overall TE1 finish. Carr and Waller will aim to give the Colts’ defence death by a thousand paper cuts in the form of short, high-efficiency throws.