If a matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars can’t get you excited, then you’re a normal person. This doesn’t have the makings of must-see TV, but that’s where fantasy comes in, giving us a reason to care about this game.
Our models aren’t expecting many points to be scored as we have the Titans winning 20.28-17.91 in Jacksonville. That’s not too far off from what the odds have to say, with Tennessee sitting as a 1.5-point favorite and a game total of 39.5 points.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an “MVP” roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars (£13,000)
Leonard Fournette has been on the field a ton this year for the Jags, playing 86% and 97% of the snaps through two weeks. He’s carried the rock 28 times while seeing six targets in each outing.
That kind of usage puts him on the MVP radar for this slate, and the pass-game involvement is nice insurance in the event Jacksonville falls behind. That happened in the opening week versus the Kansas City Chiefs, and Fournette finished with a non-awful 9.4 Paddy Power Fantasy points.
The Titans are allowing 20.6 Paddy Power Fantasy points per game so far to running backs, which is roughly a league-average mark, and they were super stingy to backs in 2018, giving up the third-fewest Paddy Power Fantasy points per game to the position. Plus, the Jaguars are 1.5-point ‘dogs.
Those things could push people to Derrick Henry (£15,000) on this slate, and while Fournette is sure to see a good amount of ownership, he may be a somewhat contrarian MVP play. With Henry still losing a lot of snaps to Dion Lewis, Fournette – our top-projected non-quarterback – is the running back I prefer tonight.
Gardner Minshew, QB, Jaguars (£14,000)
Gardner Minshew hasn’t been too bad as Jacksonville’s fill-in signal caller, and he’s produced fantasy days of 16.12 and 18.60 Paddy Power Fantasy points thus far. Marcus Mariota, the other passer on this slate, has outputs of 13.36 and 24.32 Paddy Power Fantasy points, with the big game aided by a long touchdown to Derrick Henry on a short pass.
With this game expected to be low-scoring, Minshew is the quarterback I feel best about, and our models agree, forecasting him for a slate-best 15.9 Paddy Power Fantasy points, though Mariota (15.6) is right on his heels.
Don’t sleep on Minshew’s running ability, either. After logging just one carry for six yards in relief duty in Week 1, he ran it six times for 56 yards a week ago. A rushing score from a quarterback could have a huge impact on this slate.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 15, 2019
Chris Conley, WR, Jaguars (£10,500)
If you’re plugging in Minshew, it makes sense to go after one of his pass-catchers, as well. Conley’s big-play ability makes him extra appealing on a single-game slate.
After going for 97 yards and a score in Week 1, he came back with 73 yards on four grabs in Week 2. It’s been a really nice start to the year for Conley, and the elite athlete is finally getting a chance to see consistent volume.
Sure, you can make an argument for D.J. Chark and Dede Westbrook, too, since the targets in this offense have been split fairly evenly – all three have a target share between 17% and 20% – but it’s really down to Chark and Conley for me. Those two are seeing huge air yards shares (43% for Chark and 37% for Conley, per airyards.com), and big plays win single-game slates.
Delanie Walker, TE, Titans (£12,000)
If you want to target pass-game weapons against the Jags’ stout secondary, tight end is usually the way to go in an effort to avoid Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. That is going to be fine by the Titans as Delanie Walker is their top pass-game option.
His overall 2019 line is skewed heavily by his two-score day in Week 1, but even without those tuddies, Walker still checks some boxes. He’s been thrown to six times in each game, hauling in nine receptions for 94 yards. He holds a team-best 23% target share as well as a 37% air yards share.
Walker will probably need a touchdown to really pay off tonight, and our models have him scoring 0.27 receiving touchdowns in this one, tops on the slate.
Josh Lambo, K, Jaguars (£9,000)
With our models expecting fewer than 40 points to be scored, the two kickers are in play.
Josh Lambo has outings of seven and eight Paddy Power Fantasy points through two weeks, and he’s been perfect so far this season – hitting all four of his field goal tries and going two-for-two on extra points. He was cash money at home in 2018, making all eight of his field goals and going 15-for-15 on extra points.
Lambo has played 25 games with the Jags, and he’s yet to miss a field goal attempt that was 39 yards or shorter. Overall, he is 42-of-45 on field goals since joining Jacksonville, hitting 8-of-10 from 40-49 yards (four fantasy points) and 6-of-7 from 50-plus (five fantasy points).
Dion Lewis, RB, Titans (£7,500)
The way things have unfolded here, all my recommendations fall in line with building a lineup under the idea that Jacksonville wins. Dion Lewis fits that mould, too.
He hasn’t seen many touches (10 total) in either Tennessee game this year because they haven’t really faced a negative game script. But even without his team getting behind big, Lewis played 43% of the snaps in Week 1’s lopsided win over the Cleveland Browns, and he was on the field for 50% of the Titans’ plays in Week 2’s narrow loss to the Indianapolis Colts.
If Tennessee got into a hole tonight, he could do his normal pass-game thing while out-snapping Derrick Henry. Plus, it’s not like Henry is some big-time receiving weapon all of the sudden, seeing only five targets through two weeks.
Lewis took on a whopping 67 targets last season, catching 59 of them for 400 yards and a score. There’s not a lot of enticing cheap plays on this slate, but Lewis isn’t a bad roll of the dice, particularly if you’re building with the idea Tennessee loses.