The Divisional round of the NFL playoffs closes with what is expected to be the game of the weekend – if not the season – with the Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills.
NFL tipster Sam Farley weighs the claims of both sides as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, the two favourites for the MVP crown, go head-to-head in western New York.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Bet Builder
Moneyline: Ravens
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown
Justice Hill Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
James Cook Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
Keon Coleman Over 1.5 Receptions
A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 20/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK OR TAP HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
WHEN: Sunday, 19th January, 11:30pm
WHERE: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports NFL
Moneyline: Ravens
It’s a tough game to call with the two MVP front runners at quarterback for either team. These teams met in Week Four, with the Ravens taking the spoils with a 35-10 win, but that was on their home field, and it simply won’t be that easy this time around.
For all the talk of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, these are both highly powered offenses which rank one (Ravens) and two (Bills) in DVOA.
What gives the Ravens the edge this Sunday is their defense, with them sixth in DVOA in comparison to the Bills in 11th. They’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards, just 29 last week against the Steelers and a regular-season average of 80.1, and have hugely improved against the pass down the stretch.
It’ll be far closer than when these teams met in September, but the result will be the same.
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown
Ravens’ running back Derrick Henry has the shortest anytime touchdown odds of anyone this Sunday and with good reason. While there are other players who have a great chance to score, it’s Henry who offers us the safest bet. Including last week’s Wild Card Round win over the Steelers, he’s now clocked up over 2,000 rushing yards and a staggering 20 touchdowns, including five in the past three games.
He’s rumbled for over 100 yards in four straight games and is essential to the Ravens’ hopes this weekend. They need to run the clock consistently in order to keep the ball from Josh Allen’s hands and give themselves the best chance of taking the win.
Justice Hill Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
Back when these two met in Week Four, there was one Raven who really shone: Justice Hill. He’s always been more dynamic as a pass catcher and he had his biggest game of the season against the Bills, catching all six passes for 78 yards and a receiving touchdown, in addition to a further 18 yards on the ground.
As good as this Bills’ defense is, they have one glaring weakness and that’s against running backs when they’re used in the passing game. In the 17 games of the regular season, they allowed 750 receiving yards to running backs, an average of 44.1 per game, the most in the NFL.
They also have the second most targets, receptions and receiving touchdowns too. Expect Hill to be used sparingly but effectively here.
James Cook Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
It’s tough to recommend a running back to excel against the Ravens. After all, they’ve given up the fewest rushing yards of anyone this season. However, with a total as low as 54.5, we’re going to take the Over on James Cook.
Firstly, he’s a superior running back to both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren who combined for just 23 yards against this defense last week, as well as operating in a far more dynamic offense.
We know that Cook will get an opportunity. Last week the Bills beat the Broncos, the team who’d allowed the third least rushing yardage, and really let Cook loose. That game saw him rush for 120 yards and a touchdown, but the most interesting part for us was his 23 carries, his highest total of the season.
He’s become a bigger part of their offense this season with 19 touchdowns and Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady will continue to lean on him.
Keon Coleman Over 1.5 Receptions
To wrap up this Bet Builder we’re going to finish off with Over 1.5 receptions for Bills’ wide receiver Keon Coleman. The 21-year-old has had a promising rookie campaign and could be in line for a big Sunday.
Don’t forget he caught three of four targets for 51 yards when these teams met in September and could match that again. He’s not been hugely effective since returning from a five-week layoff in Week 15.
However, he’s had at least two targets in every game, with a staggering 10 in Week 18. It’s also worth noting that he still leads Bills’ pass catchers in red zone targets, despite missing time this season, so he can be relied upon to get looks when Josh Allen and his team are inside the 20.
With Ravens’ standout Marlon Humphrey expecting to line up opposite Khalil Shakir, it should create opportunities for the likes of Coleman, who could be primed for a big evening.
Ravens @ Bills Tips
Moneyline: Ravens
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown
Justice Hill Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
James Cook Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
Keon Coleman Over 1.5 Receptions
A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 20/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK OR TAP HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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