Tampa Bay @ Kansas City betting tips
Under 45.5 Points
DeAndre Hopkins Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Bucky Irving Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
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Tuesday, 1.15am: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
NFL regular season match at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports NFL
Under 45.5 Points
Two weeks ago, this might have been the best matchup of the season. Now, we’ve got the Chiefs still winning despite Mahomes throwing more picks than touchdown passes, and Baker Mayfield having fewer weapons than a Hare Krishna meeting.
This is going to be a slog, and I don’t think either side will move the ball particularly well. I also wouldn’t be surprised if this is the game where Andy Reid puts some awful plays on film so other teams have to account for them later in the season when things are higher stakes.
He’ll intentionally throw an outcome off a certain formation, only to change it in the playoffs. He does it every year, and doing so against a team in a different conference, who are no threat to you, while being undefeated, seems the logical thing to do.
For that reason, I don’t think we’ll see a naturally lower-scoring game. Well, that any nobody being able to catch the ball for Tampa Bay.
DeAndre Hopkins Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
One thing you can do is get the new guy involved. He’s a week further into the playbook now, and he’s beginning to understand what it takes to play for the Chiefs.
They’ll put him in situations to test him, but also out of necessity. JuJu is another week away in all probability, Xavier Worthy is not able to run a full route tree, and Travis Kelce is already putting in more work than the organisation would like him to this early in the season.
Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
It’s okay to say he’s not playing well. He isn’t. He’s the most-talented player to ever play the sport and him having a bad season doesn’t undo any of that.
He has had nobody reliable to throw the ball to. And the team has evolved where they’re a good running unit now. Before, quick passes would be their running game. Now, long run plays are their intermediate passing game.
They have a top three defense, and one of the best kickers in the country. Mahomes is no longer superman and that’s primarily because Kansas City don’t want him to be.
Bucky Irving Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
Tampa Bay are going to have to find some home truths here. The first is that Baker is a good quarterback, but he can’t overcome losing Chris Godwin for the season, and then having Mike Evans sidelined.
To be fair, not many could overcome it. Mahomes clearly can’t cope with similar.
But they’ve also got to understand what a special runner Irving can be, and prioritse his carries over those pencilled in for Rachaad White. The latter is not evasive, he’s inefficient and has a tonne of wasted movement.
This line would be too high if I felt Kansas City would run away with this game, but I think it stays within one score long enough that they can commit to pounding the rock.
Bucs @ Chiefs betting tips
Under 45.5 Points
DeAndre Hopkins Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Bucky Irving Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
- A Bet Builder with these selections pays approximately 12/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK OR TAP HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All odds and lines quoted are accurate at time of publication but are subject to change
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