Week 3 of the NFL 2024 season gets underway on Thursday night with the New England Patriots @ New York Jets in the Meadowlands of New Jersey.
Tasked with reading the tea-leaves on this AFC East showdown is Paddy’s own offensive coordinator Andrew Cunneen who has put together a fab fourfold for your late-night viewing pleasure…
NFL Thursday Patriots @ Jets Bet Builder
Handicap: New England +6.5
Over 30.5 Receiving Yards: Breece Hall
Over 165.5 Passing Yards: Jacoby Brissett
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Hunter Henry
A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 21/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Handicap: New England +6.5
First of all, there’s no indication that New England will contest anything other than close games all year. They’re designed to play like that, and if they persist with this personnel, they could end up winning seven or eight games. That would defy all preseason expectations.
QB Jacoby Brissett is a bridge to Drake Maye and there’s no expectations on him other than not turning the ball over. So far, he’s done exactly that, with zero picks to one TD through two games.
And while that won’t be getting him any Pro Bowl votes, it’s entirely possible that he keeps them in games by not knocking them out of games.
The Jets are adopting a similar approach here. They’re not quite risk-averse, and happy to rely on Aaron Rodgers’ trust in the players around him to move the ball.
Both teams play at a very slow pace, and there’ll be a lot of three-and-outs. It will likely grind out to be a home win, but I’m happy to have the points in my pocket.
Over 30.5 Receiving Yards: Breece Hall
Well, Rodgers has shown a willingness to feed Garrett Wilson when he can. But that won’t be in this one.
Wilson will be lined up against Christian Gonzalez. In his short NFL career, Gonzalez has come up against AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase and DK Metcalf in man-coverage looks.
In those matchups, he’s given up just seventeen catches for 148 total yards!
He is one of the best defenders in the league. So, attention turns to Hall in what’s a juicy matchup for him to go against a linebacker or safety. He has 91 receiving yards through two games.
Over 165.5 Passing Yards: Jacoby Brissett
I think this is an incredibly low line, even when I factor in just how many man coverage looks he’s going to see with limited receivers.
But it’s worth noting that he’ll be able to pass the ball to his running backs and tight ends at a decent clip.
FOXBOROUGH, MA – SEPTEMBER 15: Jacoby Brissett #7 of the New England Patriots looks to throw the football during the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Gillette Stadium on September 15, 2024 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
Twelve of his fifteen completions against Seattle went to those positions, and just because there’s no receivers open does not mean you can’t design screens to get them open.
We’re seeing the benefit of two games that saw New England run successfully – Brissett’s line dropping to backup levels. The Jets have a stouter front.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Hunter Henry
The Patriots’ receivers can’t get open when they’re working with a full field, let alone in a confined space. So it will come as no surprise whatsoever to lean that I won’t be backing a receiver to score a touchdown in the redzone, either.
And while taking Stevenson to hammer it in seems like the safe play, Brissett was crying out to have a safety blanket in big moments, and clearly his connection with Hunter Henry last week is the way forward for him when he really needs a play.
Particularly with CJ Mosley out now, there’ll be space for Hunter Henry to add his impressive week two showing.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Bet Builder
Handicap: New England +6.5
Over 30.5 Receiving Yards: Breece Hall
Over 165.5 Passing Yards: Jacoby Brissett
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Hunter Henry
A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 21/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP.
*All odds and lines quoted are accurate at time of publication but are subject to change
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