NFL Tips: Our picks-packed guide to the 2024 season’s big kick-off – including a 50/1 Super Bowl dark horse

Green Bay Packers – Matt LaFleur is the best play-caller not named McVay or Shanahan in the league, and with Jordan Love as likely to take a huge step-up next year as any QB, I’d have them over anyone in the NFC.

Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Burrow has led his team to the AFC Championship game or Super Bowl in the two seasons that he’s finished healthy. He’s the man who can stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs winning this year.

It’s tough to look past the Kansas City Chiefs in their search for a 3-peat. Patrick Mahomes already has a Hall of Fame worthy career but achieving a feat last accomplished in 1967 would be the icing on the cake.

Green Bay Packers – It’s a surprise they’re behind both the Cowboys and Eagles in betting, though perhaps that’s explained by the strength of the NFC North. Jordan Love and his phalanx of young, exciting receivers can only improve and they weren’t far off it last season.

Houston Texans – If you like the theme of young, improving quarterbacks, I’ll introduce you to the only player in the NFL who I believe can go toe-to-toe with Mahomes over the next five years.

Green Bay Packers  – The Packers grew as last season progressed, narrowly losing the 49ers in a game they probably deserved to win. If they continue to learn and improve then they’re a dangerous team.

The Detroit Lions were the feel good story of the season last year and after retaining the majority of their roster they’ll be gearing up for another run at a title.

Buffalo Bills – Zig when everyone else is zagging, right? Obviously there are big questions in Buffalo this year and the loss of Matt Milano does worry me on defence, but they’ve got Josh Allen and with better game management they’d probably have a Super Bowl by now. They can recapture that form and win the AFC this year.

Seattle Seahawks – I mean, at the prices? Mike McDonald was the hottest Head Coach commodity on the market outside of Jim Harbaugh and for good reason. Their defense will be top-ten and if their offense is mid-pack, they’ll be in the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins – They are the team with the largest odds that have a realistic chance of winning it but it all comes down to health, which they suffered with last year. If Mike McDaniel has a healthy Tua Tagovailoa all year then his offense has the ability to beat anyone.

The Green Bay Packers. Jordan Love and co were probably the better side in the NFC title game last year before losing to the more experienced San Francisco 49ers, with a new look defence and a favourable start to the season they look a good price at around 16/1.

Los Angeles Rams – Again, being in one of the tougher divisions probably explains the price here, but I still love being able to get coach Sean McVay, Puca Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford and Kyren Williams on my side at 25/1 or so.

Matthew Stafford – He’s not hurt. He’s got Cooper Kupp back for the start of the year. Puka Nacua is a revelation. Blake Corum can be their third-down back. McVay is creative. There’s a path here for him, and he’s a wild price.

Joe Burrow – Burrow is that guy, he just finds ways to win. He’s been unfortunate with injuries but if he can keep himself on the field then he can elevate his team and he will without doubt be in the MVP conversation.

Quarterbacks dominate this award, winning the last 11, but I think wide receiver Tyreek Hill at 100/1 is too good a price to turn down. If voters move away from QB it has to be him.

Anthony Richardson – Logically, Josh Allen is the smart play as everything will be on him in Buffalo this year, but for a value bet I’m tempted by the Colts’ QB as we saw a glimpse of his potential last season and their offence in year two under Shane Steichen should be much better.

Raheem Morris – Nobody has been given more to work with, with fewer expectations, and an easier path to success, than Raheem Morris. Arthur Smith was hated. He has a veteran QB. He’s in the worst division in football. Slam dunk.

Mike McDaniel – This is award rarely won by the favourite and it’s generally won by a team who improve their win total. If the Dolphins keep healthy then they should get more than 11 wins and their offense has potential to be the most exciting in the league.

DeMeco Ryans probably should have won this award last year and with the addition of Stefon Diggs to QB CJ Stroud’s receiving options I’d expect the Houston Texans to improve again and secure Ryans the award.

Dan Quinn – This one always a feels a bit of a lottery and is largely based on out-performing expectations. Washington have been so dysfunctional historically that no one expects much, while the three other NFC East teams all have big questions lingering around them. If Quinn can get anything out of his roster they might have a shot at the Division or a Wild Card spot in the NFC, and that could spell a win here.

Buffalo Bills – Simply because they’re not favourites and they absolutely should be. This is a bizarre level of disrespect for the second-best QB in the league. And for what? 60-year-old conspiracy theorist Aaron Rodgers?

New Orleans Saints – The Falcons are favourites for the NFC South but I can’t get on board at odds-on prices. They were terrible last year and while they’ve upgraded hugely at QB it still feels like a stretch to win the division. I’ll take the Saints instead, a team who could easily improve again, especially given Derek Carr finished last season well.

Following on from the Ryans pick, the Houston Texans look great value at 10/11 or thereabouts to win the AFC South.

Washington Commanders – See Coach of the Year reasoning. Dallas and Philly are primed to implode, the Giants will probably be starting Drew Lock soon, who will have no one besides rookie Malik Nabers to pass to. Washington could win this Division by default if they are okay-ish, so this looks a big price to me.

Most Receiving Yards in the NFC West – Cooper Kupp – I get he was injured and he’s now 31, but coming into last year, he was a top-five receiver in the NFL. Nacua is due huge regression; nobody knows where Aiyuk will play; Marvin is a rookie. Go for it.

Garrett Wilson 1250+ regular season receiving yards – We saw Wilson rack up 1,042 receiving yards last year despite having Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle throwing him the ball. With Aaron Rodgers feeding him and a massive target share, only injury can prevent this landing.

Lamar Jackson is arguably the greatest running quarterback of all time, he has only failed to top 700 rushing yards in his rookie year (695 yards) and that is because he didn’t play until the midpoint of the season. With opposing defences now having to also worry about Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson Over 700.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards looks a shoe in for the reigning MVP.

Jared Goff to have the Most Regular Season Passing Yards. The Lions QB benefits from having a largely unchanged offence around him going into the season and plays all but three weeks of the season in domes. He was second in this category last year, so 9/1 looks a generous price.

Brian Burns Most Regular Season Sacks – Coming off the worst team in the NFL to a unit who will rely on their defense to win games, Brian Burns gets to play alongside a man who commands double teams in Dexter Lawrence – and  Kayvon Thibodeaux. He could easily hit over 15, and then it’s anyone’s game.

Marvin Harrison Jr 1000+ regular season receiving yards  – He was the most talented guy in this year’s draft class and will almost immediately be one of the best receivers in the league. He’s a true alpha WR, paired with a good QB in Kyler Murray and should smash the 1,000 yard mark this season.

Tyreek Hill to have the Most Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns at 10/1. Hill spent the summer challenging Olympic 100m Champ Noah Lyles to a race, and he legitimately might have a chance to win that. When you’re one of the fastest people on the planet you’ve always got a chance to score touchdowns, I expect Hill to lead the league for the second year in a row.

Alex Highsmith Most Regular Season Sacks –  Let’s swing for the fences here. Highsmith posted 14.5 sacks in 2022, the sixth most in the league, and though he only had 7 last year, underlying stats show him pressuring QBs at a similar rate to studs like Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons. He’s a huge value at the price.