It’s a matter of a few weeks until the 2024 NFL season kicks off and Paddy’s gone American football crazy with all the markets on offer for the new season.
There are literally hundreds of NFL player specials available to bet on – it’s enough to confound the most seasoned gridiron watcher. Fortunately for you. we’ve got Andrew Cunneen to break down the X’s and O’s for the perplexed…
NFL Tips – Player Props
Anthony Richardson to Rush for 750 Yards or More
Derrick Henry to Rush for 1,250 Yards or More
Most Regular Season Receiving Yards – CeeDee Lamb
Josh Allen to Throw for 4,500+ Yards
Gus Edwards to Score 8+ Rushing Touchdowns
Most Regular Season Rushing TDs – Devon Achane
*All odds and lines quoted are accurate at time of publication but are subject to change
Anthony Richardson to Rush for 750 Yards or More
The Colts are primed. I’m not quite sure for what yet, but in the brief glimpse we got of Anthony Richardson last year, it became apparent that the football community was paying close attention to Indianapolis for the first time since Peyton Manning left.
And why? Because Richardson is blockbuster.
His pre-season struggles in the passing game certainly highlight the fact that Jim Bob Cooter is going to have to protect him, and the best way to do it is by giving him designed runs.
You might think his injury history suggests he needs to avoid contact, but designed runs are far less likely to result in impact than his manic scrambles. And that’s what they want to avoid. So, the equation? Less true passing attempts equals more opportunity to run in-tandem with Jonathan Taylor.
Derrick Henry to Rush for 1,250 Yards or More
This one isn’t popular with the hipsters because nobody likes an old running back. But year over year, we constantly analyse Henry’s body and diagnose him as close to breaking point.
The only thing he breaks are tackles.
With defences now having to cater for Lamar, Henry is going to have a clearer path to one-v-ones in the box because defenders have to account for a scrambling quarterback.
BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 09: Derrick Henry #22 of the Baltimore Ravens warms up before a preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles at M&T Bank Stadium on August 9, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
In almost the opposite direction to Richardson, the Ravens know Lamar has progressed as a passer to the point where they need to stop giving him as many carries. Those will likely be spared until the red zone – at which point, Henry has done his job marching down the field.
And on a final point, they put zero resources into the wide receiver position this off-season. So, after Mark Andrews misses half the season and Zay Flowers is just getting designed touches rather than true plays, where does the volume go? You got it.
Most Regular Season Receiving Yards – CeeDee Lamb
I don’t like the Cowboys. I’ve hated their offseason. And almost everything about their structure under Mike McCarthy.
But their one commitment is getting Lamb the ball. Once he signs his deal, or even if he doesn’t, he’s going to show his market value, or indeed prove it retrospectively.
Let’s look at the receivers around him in last year’s ranking:
Tyreek Hill? Sure, but already nursing a thumb injury. Amon-Ra? Sam LaPorta out-targeted him in four games in his rookie season. Imagine how much more involved he’ll be this year. Puka? Impossible to repeat. A.J. Brown? Saquon Barkley. DJ Moore? Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze. Brandon Aiyuk? LOL. Nico Collins? Stefon Diggs.
What did the Cowboys do to give CeeDee competition? Absolutely nada.
Josh Allen to Throw for 4,500+ Yards
Well, he’s going to have to, isn’t he?
No team since the beginning of time has ever turned to their quarterback as bluntly as this and said ‘it’s on you’. And they know that’s their best shot, too.
He did it back in 2020 and came less than 100 yards shy the following season. He’s never been more than 220 yards away since he turned a corner – and this will be another bold attempt.
The supporting cast he has might be the worst yet, but Buffalo have given absolutely no resource to running the ball, and there’s a chance that Keon Coleman can make a difference when it comes to explosive plays.
He’s not fast, but his body control should give him a downfield explosive option – one that’s far better than Gabe Davis.
Gus Edwards to Score 8+ Rushing Touchdowns
Edwards leads a backfield that comprises of the always-injured JK Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal.
Even if you think Dobbins is a better back, Edwards has always been the favoured carrier inside the red zone.
It’s all he does – eat touchdowns. And he did that with Lamar Jackson splitting those opportunities. He’s moving to a team that will run the ball on every play if they’re allowed, and he’s behind a trifecta of Rashawn Slater, Zion Johnson and Joe Alt – the best line of his career perhaps?
Most Regular Season Rushing TDs – Devon Achane
This is the value one, obviously.
But nobody needs me to go into minute details as to why I think this is entirely feasible.
Tyreek Hill is a little bit older. Jaylen Waddle is injury prone. Raheem Mostert is firmly the backup.
The man turned 103 carries into eight touchdowns last year, in a timeshare, while missing most of the season with an injury.
He might have ‘featured’ in 11 games, but it wasn’t a fair assessment of his involvement. Lead backs can expect north of 250 carries each year.
I’ll let you do the maths. He’s the biggest offensive X Factor in the NFL this season.
NFL Tips
Anthony Richardson to Rush for 750 Yards or More
Derrick Henry to Rush for 1,250 Yards or More
Most Regular Season Receiving Yards – CeeDee Lamb
Josh Allen to Throw for 4,500+ Yards
Gus Edwards to Score 8+ Rushing Touchdowns
Most Regular Season Rushing TDs – Devon Achane
*All odds and lines quoted are accurate at time of publication but are subject to change
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