NFL Tips: Thursday’s 11/1 Bet Builder for New Orleans Saints @ LA Rams

NFL tipster Andrew Cunneen finds five value picks when the Saints travel to LA to take on the Rams.

NFL tips – New Orleans Saints @ LA Rams

LA Rams to Win
Over 46.5 Points
Kyren Williams – Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
Kyren Williams – Over 89.5 Rushing Yards
Derek Carr – Over 227.5 Passing Yards

    Ah, it’s my favourite time of year. And no, I don’t mean Christmas. I mean the time of year where Christmas is going on in the background and I get to become some sort of James Bond-type character who manages to look engaged with the annual conversation while being glued to the NFL going on around me.

    I cannot explain more fervently how the festive period should be about rest rather than anything remotely laboursome. You’ve got a run of days off over January where you can finally decompress.

    And I’ll choose to do so while watching Kyren Williams win me money.

    The Rams and Saints are locked in a battle to land a Wild Card spot, and this game is so crucial for their probabilities. So it comes down to whether or not you trust in Sean McVay to outsmart Dennis Allen on the west coast. I’d trust Sean McVay to outsmart Sherlock Holmes in Whitechapel.

    LA Rams to Win

    The Saints defence is much heralded, but the Rams rushing scheme is so schematically-versatile that they won’t become one-dimensional.

    That likely won’t be the case with the Saints who have struggled with the deep ball all season, and with Aaron Donald ensuring their early-down carries will be limited to under four yards, they’re going to have to work the middle of the field – which is the only real strength of this Rams’ pass defence.

    They’re incredibly young, so offensive coordinators have been clever in testing them with nuanced route combinations, but their youth pays off underneath where they fly to the ball. Rams win a shootout.

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      Over 46.5 Points

      And with great shootouts come great responsibility. It’s not quite what George Lucas had in mind, admittedly, but every metaphor has multiple layers.

      The Saints will continue to look to Alvin Kamara underneath to move the chains later on in this game when they’re behind because Sean McVay will drop eight defenders in coverage.

      It’s why Chris Olave never entered my mind for a prop total. But that does mean swapping points for time – an exchange that has landed many an over for us in the past.

      Kyren Williams – Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

      People bet on yardage trends when they’re including a receiving yardage prop and that’s not going to win you many weeks. What you need to focus on is the opportunity rather than the production.

      Kyren Williams wouldn’t have landed this total in either of the last two weeks, but he combined for eleven targets over that span, which makes him a very viable option in the passing game.

      Kyren Williams – Over 89.5 Rushing Yards

      How many times would Williams have gone under in the past six games here? The answer is once, by a yard and a half.

      This defensive line is excellent but that hasn’t stopped Kyren from being match-up proof in the past. The Rams motion the receiver so well that they can dictate spacing of the defenders with ease.

      Baltimore, Indianapolis and Cleveland all have great fronts. He rushed for 305 yards in those games.

      Derek Carr – Over 227.5 Passing Yards

      The Rams fall into the top ten when it comes to passes thrown against in the league this year. Carr might not be great, but he should get 35+ attempts to be average, and at a required sub-seven-yards-per-attempt required, Derek Carr should do just fine.

      NFL tips – New Orleans Saints @ LA Rams

      LA Rams to Win
      Over 46.5 Points
      Kyren Williams – Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
      Kyren Williams – Over 89.5 Rushing Yards
      Derek Carr – Over 227.5 Passing Yards

      *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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      What do you think?