NFL Tips: Your great 38/1 Bet Builder for Chargers @ Chiefs

Our tipster Andrew Cunneen's ready for a tasty edition of Thursday Night Football.

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DeAndre Carter Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards
Justin Herbert Over 13.5 Rushing Yards
Travis Kelce Under 80.5 Receiving Yards

*A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 38/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Friday 1.16am: Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports NFL

There are three teams in the NFL that are elite. One of them is the Buffalo Bills, and the other two are playing against each other in Thursday Night Football.

And I’d happily open this up by admitting that I’ve no idea which way this game will go.

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Yes, it’s not the most normal way to open a tipping piece, but the AFC West is my speciality subject on Mastermind and I’m telling you that the final outcome doesn’t need to be spoken about for us to win money.

So, let’s get into it.

DeAndre Carter Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Without Keenan Allen, the only players who can create separation for the Chargers are Austin Ekeler, whose props are fairly bang-on and whose presence in the red zone is too obvious, Josh Palmer, who didn’t see significant usage in any package week one, and DeAndre Carter, who now feels like an offensive cornerstone rather than an afterthought with Allen out.

Carter is the deep threat instead of Jalen Guyton, and he’ll also likely attract the fourth-choice corner in big sets because he doesn’t play the slot too often in those formations. With rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie out for the Chiefs, Carter will be the target open down-field.

Remember, the days of Tyrann Mathieu in KC are gone now, so there’s no other X Factor to cover tricky receivers outside of standard corner depth.

This mismatch means DeAndre Carter Anytime Touchdown Scorer is a good play.

Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards

If Chargers corner J.C. Jackson plays, LA will isolate one side of the field and leave him to take the  Chiefs’ #1 receiver – probably JuJu Smith-Schuster, but who knows with KC’s offence right now?

That will almost always leave a chasm of space for Patrick Mahomes to run into half the field.

Unless the Chargers add in a spy linebacker, which they can’t really afford to do with Travis Kelce marauding, Mahomes will have multiple chances to extend drives with his feet.

I’ll take Mahomes to get Over 17.5 Rushing Yards like he’s done so often in the past against Cover 2 teams.

Justin Herbert Over 13.5 Rushing Yards

The Chargers don’t like rushing Justin Herbert and that’s clear, which is precisely why Chiefs safety – and sometimes kicker – Justin Reid will try to entice him into the open field.

Kansas coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a heavy-blitz guy and the analytics suggest that Herbert avoided two sacks in week one just from his pocket movement alone.

I like this prop because he could pick it up in fell swoop given the defensive tendencies of KC. Justin Herbert Over 13.5 Rushing Yards is next.

Travis Kelce Under 80.5 Receiving Yards

Derwin James is the best tight end cover in the NFL and generally speaking, he’s going to be matched up with Kelce for the entirety of this game.

His ceiling is far lower than normal, and I believe chunk plays will come for the lesser receivers due to a lack of zone focus from the Chargers on their side of the field, as well as Mahomes extending and looking deep.

He might score in the red zone if he breaches bracket coverage, but that’ll be a minimum yardage gain.

We’ll round off with Travis Kelce Under 80.5 Receiving Yards.

NFL Tips

DeAndre Carter Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards
Justin Herbert Over 13.5 Rushing Yards
Travis Kelce Under 80.5 Receiving Yards

*A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 38/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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What do you think?