NFL Tips: Best bets for Week 11 including Bills, Chiefs & Green Bay on Sunday

Paddy Power's NFL trader Dan Whitty delivers his big hitting tips for week 11.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

6.01pm: Colts @ Bills – Bills to win & under 49.5 points

TV: Sky Sports NFL

Buffalo have been slipping a bit under the radar since their huge win in Kansas City. Their shock loss at Jacksonville was followed by a mauling of the hapless Jets last week.

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The biggest edge the Bills have in this game is their defence. They’re strong on both the run and pass with them giving up the fourth fewest rushing yards per game. This front will be key to stopping Jonathan Taylor, who has had four 100+ yard games in the last five.

Stop Taylor and you stop the Colts. Buffalo are no mugs on the offensive side of the ball either with star WR Stefon Diggs coming off a huge week. Four Bills also rushed for a TD last week and they have an embarrassment of riches.

The Bills can lean on the run game and with the predicted wet and windy weather in Buffalo, the value in this game looks to be backing the Bills to win and for there to be under 49.5 total points.

6.01pm: Packers @ Vikings – Packers to win by 1 to 6 points

Aaron Rodgers’ return from the Covid protocol resulted in a very underwhelming game against the Seahawks, but they did get the victory to keep them sitting on top of the NFL standings. The Vikings have been very inconsistent but always seem to keep it close and I can see this game being tight.

While Rodgers is trying to regain his MVP form, the Packers’ D has emerged as a top tier unit that has only allowed Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray to score 34 points in the last three games. Green Bay will be without Aaron Jones but have a very able deputy in AJ Dillon.

Dalvin Cook Minnesota Vikings

Dalvin Cook has torched the Packers in the past, but he may find the going tougher against this improved outfit. Minnesota is always a tough place to go and I expect Kirk Cousins and co to put up plenty of points.

But the Vikings have an annoying habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, while the Packers, under Aaron Rodgers, are the masters of winning close divisional games. I expect that trend to continue and backing the Packers to win by 1 to 6 points looks like the best bet in this game.

9.26pm: Cowboys @ Chiefs – Under 56 total points

TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports NFL

Both teams put on a clinic last week to put up over 40 points apiece. Kansas City have been averaging 25 points per game, while Dallas have been putting up 31 points per game so it’s no surprise to see the line in this game coming in as one of the highest of the season so far.

For the over to hit, both teams would need to score four TDs each and I think it’s worth going under on this big total. A shootout would not be ideal either for either team, Dallas will try to keep the ball out of Pat Mahomes’ hands and will look to the ground game of Elliott and Pollard to bleed the clock.

Kansas City have Clyde Edwards-Helaire available for the first time since week 5 and could adopt a similar approach. Fans would love nothing more than a shootout between two of the best QBs in the league, but the smart play here could be backing the Unders and hoping that each team’s running game dominates and makes that very high points total unattainable.

NFL week 11 tips

6.01pm: Colts @ Bills – Bills to win & under 49.5 points
6.01pm: Packers @ Vikings – Packers to win by 1 to 6 points
9.26pm: Cowboys @ Chiefs – Under 56 total points

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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