NFL Tips: Our big-hitting 18/1 Bet Builder for Jets @ Colts on Thursday night

Tom Carnduff from Sporting Life has crunched the numbers.

Carson Wentz Indianapolis Colts

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts – Friday 00:21am
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports NFL

* A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 18/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Under 46.5 Total Points

We were one leg short last time so you got your money back as a free bet and I think this pick will be tight. If this game was on Sunday not Thursday night I’d probably look at Overs not Unders but Thursday night football struggles to be high-scoring games.

50 was the marker last week and the previous six Thursday night games have gone Under 50.5. That’s probably the effect of a short turnaround [from Sunday to Thursday]. This week it’s a bit shorter at under 46.5 but that would have won in five of the last six Thursday Night Footballs.

For me, if this game was a Sunday I’d be looking the other way but knowing the Thursday Night Football, how it’s been this season and how that line has been, I’m going to side with Under 46.5 but I think it might run it quite close here.

Zach Pascal Anytime TD Scorer

I think this Zach Pascal Anytime Touchdown Scorer is a bit of a value play, particularly when you look at the line, I think Colts are 10.5 on the line currently. Jonathan Taylor’s too short, Michael Pittman Jr is even money and Pascal is a nice price as a single.

You chuck this into a Bet Builder then you get a decent bit of value out of it. Look, he hasn’t scored for a few weeks now but he’s gone for at least 43 receiving yards in three of his last five. He’s going to get some opportunities in this one against a team like the Jets.

For me, a real value player and I think he could finally get a score here. As a price booster, it could be the game for him, Zach Pascal Anytime TD Scorer in this one.

Carson Wentz Over 9.5 Rushing Yards

I love this because I saw 9.5 on a line and I thought, ‘I need to get involved in this somehow!’ It’s to bump up the value a bit. Carson Wentz is averaging 13.5 yard rushing per game this season. His past two games have been higher at about 23 and 15 as well.

It’s not a huge ask and I think after last week in that Colts v Titans game where there were some iffy moments, mistakes pretty much decided the outcome of that one. I just like the line at 9.5 I think he can hit it.

It’s not even a 1st Down so if he sees the opportunity to go for it he will. He’s had a few rushing touchdowns in recent years so for me, Carson Wentz Over 9.5 Rushing Yards is just a great line to bump up the value.

Michael Carter Under 48.5 Rushing Yards

That Jets game last week has done a bit of damage to the average totals, if you will. He had 77 rushing yards last week but including that he’s averaging 39.9 rushing yards a game this season. That means he’s had some low tallies before last week.

The fact as well is that the Jets don’t run the ball and they don’t run it that well. They’re the lowest in the entire league when it comes to average rushing yards at 75.6. So, say they play to those averages, we’re asking Carter to have around 64% of those total rushing yards.

He’s currently averaging 52%, 53%. I just think they don’t run the ball that well in terms of high numbers of rushing yards. It’s quite a high line this. I think if it was any lower then maybe I’d be steering clear of it but it’s a pretty big ask in a game such as this. I’m siding with Michael Carter Under 48.5 Rushing Yards to complete the Bet Builder.

Thursday Night Football Bet Builder

Under 46.5 Total Points
Zach Pascal Anytime TD Scorer
Carson Wentz Over 9.5 Rushing Yards
Michael Carter Under 48.5 Rushing Yards

* A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 18/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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