NFL Draft Tips: Our trader has a 9/1 play for the opening night

It's almost here


The 2021 NFL draft is taking place in the early hours of Friday morning in Cleveland. And for the first time ever Paddy Power will be trading live and in-play throughout the first round.

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Our NFL trader, Ian Dent, has had a look at some late market moves and pinpointed some markets of interest ahead of the big show.

Number 3 pick: Mac Jones – 4/11

“Mac Jones has gone a lot shorter than when we flagged him up for this market last week. Reports seem to suggest the pick will come down to either Jones or North Dakota State QB, Trey Lance. Justin Fields is the big drifter, he was favourite last week but he is now out to 6/1. Jones still looks the most likely pick and although the price has gone, I can’t oppose Jones.” Said Ian.

ATLANTA, GA – FEBRUARY 03: A general view of action in the first half during Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on February 3, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Number 4 pick: Kyle Pitts 5/6

“I think this is where the draft really starts” said Ian. “This pick could go in a number of directions, but Pitts is so talented that I can see the Falcons taking him at #4. Matt Ryan is reaching the end of his career and is on a big contract, the Falcons could choose to help him by adding another weapon to go along with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. That trio of receivers would make Atlanta very hard to stop. So, although Tight Ends don’t usually go this high, Pitts looks a bit special. The Falcons may be tempted to draft a successor to Ryan, but I think it makes the most sense for the Falcons to take Pitts here”

First WR, RB & OL Drafted – Exact Order: Ja’Marr Chase, Javonte Williams, Penei Sewell

“We have a number of special bets on the website for the draft. Punters looking for a bit of value can parlay selections to get a nice price” said Ian. “Our markets for first WR, RB and OL drafted have been very popular. Ja’Marr Chase looks a certainty to be the first WR drafted but you could find some value if you match him up with other players to be drafted first in their position.

I like the 9/1 about Chase, Javonte Williams and Penei Sewell to be the first drafted in their position. Sewell has long been the favourite to be the first OL drafted. There’s been a bit of buzz lately around North Carolina’s Javonte Williams being the first RB drafted. We saw last year when Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first RB drafted that outsiders can spring a shock in this market. Williams has been backed into 6/1 to be the first RB drafted and you can add value to that selection by including Chase and Sewell in this treble.

Graham Byrne’s selection: Kellen Mond Draft Position: Under 75.5 – 5/6

“One of the most volatile markets in the entire draft has been Kellen Mond’s draft position” Said Ian. “Last week we had the line at 89.5, but after you tipped him up Graham, the line moved dramatically down to 64.5 at one stage. The line has come back a bit and he is now at 75.5.”

I still think that 75.5 is generous. I’ve seen worse QBs than Mond taken in the first round so I still think that Ian and the Paddy Power traders are underestimating Mond. I am going back in and having some more on the under 75.5 on Mond. The Texas A+M QB is going to go earlier than they think!

Bet Summary:

Number 3 Pick: Mac Jones

Number 4 Pick: Kyle Pitts

First WR, RB & OL Drafted – Exact Order: Ja’Marr Chase, Javonte Williams, Penei Sewell

Kellen Mond Draft Position: Under 75.5

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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