NFL Betting: $500m contract? Mahomes is still a bargain at the price

The Kansas City Chiefs signed their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, to the biggest contract in sport this week. And we think they got a pretty sweet deal...


The richest contract in the history of sport is an absolute bargain and the beneficiary of this arrangement is not the player, Patrick Mahomes, but the Kansas City Chiefs organisation.

In the NFL, the focus is so often about the language of contracts and while the headlines had Mahomes leapfrogging baseball’s Mike Trout in the contract stakes, what they failed to mention was the biggest win a sporting organisation had was in front of them in black and white.

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Patrick Mahomes’ contract is not tied to any particular percentage of the salary cap, and the figures of his deal are all included in the literature.

Let me explain.

The salaries of each player in the NFL fall under a salary cap which is determined by the league as they act as a guarantor of sorts for all contracts signed. If the salary cap goes up, which it exponentially does without fail as the most popular league in the world continues that meteoric rise, Pat Mahomes’ figures won’t change.

They won’t change for ten whole years.

I’m not saying this will be the case, but there’s an opportunity that his deal will become pretty standardised and more comparable to Aaron Rodgers’ by 2026 than the hyperbolic terms it’s currently being described as.

This guy is the most talented player I’ve ever seen play. And to borrow a baseball term, his WAR – that’s Wins Above Replacement players – is considerably higher than anyone else’s. His would be around six for me. In a 16 game season, that’s a lot – and helps explain why his Chiefs are favoured to win another title this coming season.

Sure, they’ve got talent around him so the Chase Daniels of this world can make some of those throws, but it’s important to understand one thing – Patrick Mahomes is 24 years old. He’s about five years away from his peak. Let that sink in.

And the argument many will now make should revolve around defences figuring him out. That’s valid, fair and worth examining.

However, I learned something a few years ago. The best analysis you can give of a quarterback isn’t necessarily to do with his mechanics and production when things go right – but more when things go wrong.

It’s hard to gameplan in this league. So, when you consider how often things go perfectly to plan, it’s not a high number. Mahomes produces regardless.

It is in these moments where, when a defence is doing everything perfectly to counter an offence, that he takes the reins and creates something very off-script. You cannot gameplan for that, because he has the ball and no single defender can cover every option.


The key point here is that removes the variables to the point where only his own rare inconsistency is the caveat and not the external mitigating factors. His arm angle, power and speed mean that he can produce absolutely anything at a given moment.

Now with that financial commitment to Mahomes going forward, they’re going to have to ensure he’s given even more attempts with the ball in his hands. They cemented that too, when selecting a true receiving back in the 2020 NFL Draft in Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

The wisest wager you can make here is to back Mahomes to throw over 35.5 touchdown passes in the 2020 NFL season.

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What do you think?