Sunday, 11:30pm, Sky Sports Action
I’ve written enough already telling you where I stand on the main betting markets ahead of Super Bowl LIV, so it’s about time we take a look at some of the most interesting props of the entire year.
While the even money on the handicap and points total might not appeal to everyone, there’s plenty of logic behind some of these bigger-priced side bets that I’ll point you towards.
So many are focused on the game result that they forget to look at tendencies – and even though they get less attention than the primary markets, they can often provide more assurances than the big hitters.
Let’s land ourselves a big prize.
No team in the NFL use multiple tight-end sets more than San Francisco.
Now, that alone should warrant enough attention to Dwelley who is the unspoken force in the blocking game because of George Kittle’s larger-than-life persona.
But we’re talking touchdowns here, and you need to consider situational scenarios. If the Niners get within the five-yard line with downs to play with, Spagnuolo will send some form of goal line-light formation, because they’ll have to respect the run in this area of the field.
With some pre-snap motion from Kittle to Dwelley’s side, he’ll free up a short route that should see the second-string tight end free in the back of the end zone – wait and see.
He’s also as local as you can get in the NFL, hailing from the small town of Sonora in California, just outside of San Francisco.
Now wouldn’t that be quite a story for the media to talk about post-match?
Both of these teams will want to run the clock down. It’s the only certainty we have. The primary reason for this is because the Chiefs don’t want Patrick Mahomes on the field long enough for the Niners to eventually get to him – and they will get to him.
Whether it’s a combination of running back passes against Cover 4 or Mahomes taking flight when all other options are exhausted, they’ll drag this first half out without much to note.
The Niners’ blueprint was to run the ball to death in both their previous playoff games. While I don’t suspect it will be the go-to this time, they’re all about quick completions and screens. This is what excites me about this market.
Play the clock and make some money in the process.
The only routes that work against Cover 4 are underneath routes and seam routes.
The best seam runner on the Chiefs is Tyreek Hill, but you can absolutely guarantee that the Niners safeties will be playing the overtops with him.
It’s the formations when Hardman and Hill are on the field together where the problems start to arise. If he runs a seam and the middle safety tries to jump Kelce underneath on a dig route, he’ll burn whichever corner he’ll burn any of the centre-fielders that San Francisco can roll out.
There’s a bit of value in this.
*All odds correct at time of publication