NFL betting tips: 3 best bets for Week 17’s crunch games

Smart picks in a week of uncertation propositions.


In terms of uncertain betting propositions, NFL Week 17 is right up near the top of the list for a number of reasons. The primary one is motivation: not every team wants to win this week and it’s important to understand the psychology of these situations.

Let’s take the Baltimore Ravens for example. Yes, you’ll see they’re still favourites for this week, but with a first-round bye locked up, there’s more chance of a very conservative approach from John Harbaugh here. First of all, he’s got a list of reserves taking up starting berths. They’re unfamiliar with all the play-calls and there’s a reason they’re not starters.

Just remember to take factors like this into account.

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - NOVEMBER 24: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots talks with Tom Brady #12 before the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Gillette Stadium on November 24, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-16.0) – 20/23

Sunday 18:00

A quick analysis gives us a lopsided scenario that we must not ignore. The sole reason you should bet the Patriots to cover here is because they have something to play for in the final week of an NFL regular season, which hasn’t always been the case over the last few years.

A New England win here guarantees a first-round bye in the playoffs and given how stop-start their offence has been to this point, it’s likely the only way they can sneak their way to another Super Bowl success. The Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Chargers at home and Bill Belichick knows this. The week’s preparation will be rigorous, so you can have that in your back pocket.

And for Miami, they can still play their way out of a top-five pick. Not only would that mean very little to fans or players (Parker got his extension already; everyone else is subpar at this point), but the organisation knows they likely need 20 upgrades in starting positions and not having a top-five pick would be exceptionally detrimental to that.

A 17-point Patriots win suits both parties.

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 30: Head coach Matt Patricia of the Detroit Lions watches from the sideline during the second half of a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 30, 2018 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Green Bay Packers (-12.5) @ Detroit Lions – 10/11

Sunday 18:00

Did you hear the one about the once-considered-great defensive coordinator-turned-head coach who played man coverage against the most intelligent quarterback in the NFL history?

I don’t know what Matt Patricia’s deal is – whether he’s read David and Goliath too many times over the holiday season – but he’s going to subject his secondary to this same fate that they’ve felt almost every week this season. At some point, he’ll have to change his scheme, but my god, he won’t be doing it this season.

Green Bay’s motivation? They can clinch the first overall seed if they win here and Seattle upset the Niners at CenturyLink Field. Strap in.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) – 20/23

Monday 01:20

This one’s the easiest pick of the lot.

If you’ve watched these teams or know anything about their histories, you’ll know that they eat cover 3 schemes alive.

Both will present them, then spend the next four quarters making adjustments to disguise. There is no hope this game ends with more than a field goal between the sides.

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What do you think?