This is the time of year where I tell you that the New England Patriots are rubbish again and there isn’t a hope in hell that they’re winning a Super Bowl.
It’s specifically this time of year because of tradition – it’s usually at this point where I make a fool of myself, despite my best effort at commitment to this cause, before ultimately appearing frustrated in a bar about 4.30am in February as Tom Brady lifts the Vince Lombardi above his head, next to a grinning Robert Kraft and a barely-smiling Bill Belichick.
Because he’s used to it. You’d think I’d be used to it, too.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Week 14.
BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 23: The helmet and gloves of Will Parks #34 of the Denver Broncos (not pictured) rests on the field before the game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Denver Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium on September 23, 2018 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans (-9.5) @ 20/23
Drew Lock looked fine, but the Chargers going to Denver to try and win is like my smelly cousin going on a night out and trying to come away with increased self-esteem.
He’ll find it somewhat trickier away from home comforts and given that his only really impressive showing was that long ball to Courtland Sutton, it would cause no real surprise to see him slow down against genuine interior pass rush and talented linebackers taking away his tight ends.
Deshaun Watson might not even have Von Miller to contend with as he sat out the Chargers game with an injury. So, this should be a cakewalk, especially as Derek Wolfe will miss some time too.
Houston are rolling after their win over New England and they’re looking a real threat in the playoffs now.
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 27: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers catches the ball and runs to the end zone only to have the ball called back for a penalty against Deebo Samuel #19 against Ross Cockrell #47 of the Carolina Panthers in the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium on October 27, 2019 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) @ New Orleans Saints @ 9/10
The 49ers offence revolves around George Kittle and the teams they do well against are the sides who don’t have an obvious counter for Kittle on their defensive side of the ball.
For example, the New Orleans Saints lack a linebacker with real speed or a safety with real size. And that’s only in man coverage situations. Zone doesn’t really work against the Niners because Kyle Shanahan has a counter for every single one of these coverages and he’ll change them pre-snap to suit the situation.
It took a freakish showing from Lamar Jackson to slow them down, and even then, it was a game they feel they could have won.
Coming into New Orleans with a three-point advantage? Thanks.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – DECEMBER 13: Head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs walks out of the tunnel prior to the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium on December 13, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
Kansas City Chiefs (+3.0) @ New England Patriots @ 9/10
I would like you to go back to the intro of this piece and outline what you believe my thoughts on this matchup to be.
Have a good think.
Patrick Mahomes is going to put up 30 points in Foxboro whether you like it or not, so we can now witness just how this stagnating offence is going to try and keep pace.
The obvious answer is that they won’t, and sometimes the obvious answers are the right ones. Handing a visitor three points in Foxboro feels like such a reach for odds-setters and based purely on legacy and tradition rather than a true read of the matchup in question.
Take advantage.
A treble on these three bets pays out at over 11/2
*All odds correct at time of posting
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